In the heart of Southeast Asia, Thailand’s economy is beginning to show signs of resurgence, checks in to Thailand’s hallmarked council chief, Chaicharn Charoensuk. In the wake of a turbulent year caused by a bring-and-cold economic climate, it’s no surprise that Thailand had seen a drop in its exports. However, the wheel of the economy is slowly regaining its momentum, despite the deep grooves left by the unstinting contraction earlier in the year.
“Though we are on a forward path now, we cannot forget the long shadows of the past year,” Charoensuk advises. “Our growth, despite being stronger than in many months, is still rivaled by the negative echoes of our recent history.”
A diligent observer would have noticed the subtle indications of green shoots sprouting in August. A moderate growth rate of 2.6% was recorded – a token of revival unfelt for the past 11 months. This glow of hope carried into September as well, with the economy noting a 2.1% increase.
An optimistic Charoensuk shares his expectations for the third quarter’s growth. “We anticipate a 5% – 7% upsurge; however, it might not completely outweigh the contraction experienced from January to July,” he cautions.
Despite the overarching economic downturn, certain sectors proved to be of resilient nature. Auto manufacturing, rice, sugar, food, and electronic components and appliances have experienced expansion in their exports. These arenas serve as bright beacons in an otherwise foggy economic scenario.
Looking ahead, Charoensuk sees slight but encouraging growth for the coming year. A prediction of 2% export growth has been posited, supported by the recent weakening of the Thai baht against the US dollar. Yet, it’s clear this prophecy is just that – an anticipation contingent on a myriad of variables.
Not content to simply wait for the economic winds to change, Charoensuk discussed the council’s proactive approach: a three-pronged export strategy proposed to the government. By broadening the horizons beyond traditional markets, they aim to set Thai exporters on the course of fresh opportunities in the Middle East, India, Africa, and Central Asia.
“Our second strategy is underpinned by the maxim that a government should not only exercise hard power, but also extend soft power along with liquidity support for exporters,” Charoensuk elaborates. “The legal realm should not be a stumbling block for our exporters but rather a stepping stone.”
To facilitate this action, the government needs to take prompt steps to amend current export laws, including the 17 laws relating to transhipment—a key aspect in Charoensuk’s proposed strategy.
Only time will tell whether these strategies will bring about the much-needed rejuvenation in Thai exports. Until then, we watch, hope and ready ourselves for the opportune moment to lean into the change.
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