The ruling Pheu Thai Party’s decisive victory in the Phitsanulok by-election on September 15th has sent ripples across the political landscape of Thailand. Political pundits suggest that this triumph is a significant harbinger, indicating that coalition parties, spearheaded by Pheu Thai, will likely continue their unified front against the People’s Party (PP) in the forthcoming general election.
Pheu Thai’s candidate, Jadet Jantar, managed to edge out his only contender, Nathachanon Chanaburanasak of the PP, in a nail-biting contest for Phitsanulok’s Constituency 1. The stakes were high, especially since the PP had banked on a vigorous campaign, roping in key figures to rally support and reclaim the seat once held by Padipat Santipada.
Padipat had clinched the seat in the previous general election, but his political career hit a roadblock when the Constitutional Court disbanded the Move Forward Party (MFP), the precursor to today’s PP, on August 7th. The court cited national security concerns and slapped an extensive 10-year political ban on 11 executive members, including Padipat, alleging they posed a threat to the constitutional monarchy.
In a fiercely contested race, the electoral results showed Jadet securing 37,209 votes compared to Nathachanon’s 30,640. Voter turnout was a solid 54%, with 67,849 valid ballots and 1,108 spoiled ones out of 138,705 eligible voters.
Prime Minister and Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra praised the victory, seeing it as a moral booster for the government. Party stalwarts highlighted the political significance of the win, especially as it marked Pheu Thai’s first victory in this constituency in two decades. Celebrating this milestone, Deputy Prime Minister and deputy Pheu Thai leader Somsak Thepsutin stressed its importance for the newfound momentum of the government and Ms. Paetongtarn.
Historically a Democratic Party bastion, Phitsanulok’s Constituency 1 witnessed a shift in power when the MFP hijacked the seat in the last election, only to lose it after recent judicial interventions.
The defeat of PP, according to Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, can be attributed to several factors. Significantly, restrictions on advance voting and voting outside electoral constituencies hampered young supporters, many of whom had migrated for work, thereby missing the chance to cast their votes.
Stithorn also pointed out that by-elections don’t stir the same fervor as general elections, inherently making them less impactful in shaping the government and prime ministerial seat. By-election voters predominantly consist of residents loyal to local political clans rather than aligning strictly with party lines. Stithorn criticized the PP’s performance, noting a lack of engagement and enthusiasm to drive voter turnout, compounded by controversial remarks from PP MP Chetawan Thuaprakhon. Chetawan’s comments suggesting the Ekathossarot military base should be converted into a garbage dump did not sit well with local residents.
Pheu Thai’s cohesive support from its coalition partners, who chose not to field rivals in the by-election, gave them an uncontested advantage. Coalition allies like Bhumjaithai and Palang Pracharath Party factions lent a hand, further consolidating votes for Jadet.
Looking ahead, Stithorn believes Pheu Thai’s by-election success might be a prelude to the 2027 general election. He posits that Thaksin Shinawatra, perceived as Pheu Thai’s shadow leader, would serve as a linchpin to ensure coalition unity against the PP in future electoral battles. He forecasts a tight competition backed by local clans and coordinated tactics by Thaksin to secure another win for Pheu Thai-led coalitions.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, echoed similar sentiments. He stressed that had coalition parties fielded their own candidates, the vote split would have made it tough to defeat PP. Olarn highlighted that Pheu Thai’s thorough support system and control over state mechanisms played pivotal roles in their victory.
He also advised the PP to moderate its uncompromising stance, suggesting they pivot from polarizing issues, like amending the lese majeste law, to addressing local community needs. The PP’s rigid ideologies don’t sit well with local political leaders, leading to their isolation. Olarn urged the PP to prioritize community-centric policies to regain footing.
Evidently, the by-election loss has prompted a introspective look within PP. The absence of advance voting alone reportedly caused a shortfall of nearly 10,000 votes. PP’s former MP Padipat acknowledged the disparity in voter mobilization and the influence of local politicians as primary challenges. He emphasized Pheu Thai’s coherent strategy of leveraging local clans and undivided candidature as game-changers.
Pheu Thai MP Nopphon Luangthongnara commended the coalition’s cooperation in the by-election. He emphasized that choosing the most viable candidate and stepping aside for stronger contenders has proven effective. This approach, he suggested, might hold the key to success in upcoming general elections, at least in crucial constituencies. He also reiterated how deeply ingrained patronage systems and local clans are in Thai politics, an advantage Pheu Thai continues to harness while the PP overlooks.
Indeed, the by-election has revealed PP’s vulnerabilities, exposing the pitfalls of its current strategies. While Pheu Thai savors this victory, it’s clear that the battle lines for the 2027 general election are already being drawn, setting the stage for a high-stakes political showdown.
It’s amazing how Pheu Thai pulled this off! Finally, some change. Too long have the elite dictated the terms in this country.
I respect your enthusiasm, but let’s not forget that the same elites are behind Pheu Thai. It’s just old wine in a new bottle.
Exactly! People need to wake up and see that it’s the same power games being played over and over. Nothing truly changes.
You might be right. But isn’t a small change better than nothing? At least they seem to care more about the common people.
The only ‘change’ I see is Pheu Thai’s attempt to consolidate power even further. How is that any different?
Did anyone else find it suspicious how Pheu Thai managed to secure coalition support seamlessly? It feels orchestrated.
Absolutely! There’s no democracy here, just manipulation. They’re just better at it than PP.
It’s about the rehearsed narratives. They know how to play their cards right. Just look at Thaksin pulling strings from behind.
Political alliances are part of any democratic process. It happens everywhere, not just in Thailand.
I’m worried about the PP’s future. They need to reevaluate their strategies; otherwise, they’ll get left behind.
PP has lost its edge. They’re clinging to outdated policies and not adapting to the changing political landscape.
Agreed. With their rigid stance, they’re pushing away potential supporters. They should focus on community issues more than dogmatic politics.
Exactly, Somchai. If they can pivot, they might still stand a chance in 2027.
The Constitutional Court’s role in this reeks of judicial overreach. Disbanding parties under security pretexts is just undemocratic.
It’s a complex issue, Kevin. While it appears undemocratic, there might be genuine concerns we’re not privy to.
That secrecy is precisely the problem, Ananda. Transparency is key to trust in a democratic process.
Westerners always preach democracy but often forget the unique cultural contexts of other countries.
It’s refreshing to see a proper campaign by Pheu Thai. PP was too focused on national issues and ignored local needs. That was their downfall.
Exactly! People care more about immediate concerns like jobs and infrastructure, not lofty ideals.
Right. Local clans still hold immense influence, and PP thought they could bypass that with broad politics.
Let’s be real. This election win changes little. The underlying power structures remain intact, no matter who wins.
You’re quite cynical. Small changes add up; we need to support incremental progress.
Incremental change is often an excuse for maintaining the status quo, Gao.
I don’t trust Pheu Thai’s promises. They’ve been in power before, and what changed? We need fresh faces, not the same old players.
True, Aleena. But who are the alternatives? Better the devil you know?
Perhaps, but it’s a poor choice when the alternative devil is equally malevolent.
The PP’s mistake was underestimating the power of local political networks. Thai politics run on these connections, not grand speeches.
Totally. Without these networks, no party stands a chance. It’s a basic political maneuver they missed.
People need to understand that this by-election will set the tone for the 2027 general election. The alliances Pheu Thai is building now are critical.
That’s true, Kai. We should also keep an eye on how PP reacts and changes strategy. They could still mount a significant comeback.
Let’s not overlook voter suppression tactics. The restrictions hurt PP’s chances significantly. Is this democracy?
That’s a good point. It’s very strategic and very concerning at the same time.
By-elections rarely capture the essence of the political landscape. Let’s wait for the general election before jumping to conclusions.
Definitely. By-elections are mostly about local dynamics. The larger picture will only be clear in 2027.
All this political drama. It’s fascinating and concerning how much influence a few can wield over many.
Indeed. Political contests are as much about power plays as they are about governance.
I’m happy for Jadet and Pheu Thai, but we have to remember that politics in Thailand is like a double-edged sword. Winners have to meet the people’s expectations.
Pheu Thai’s victory shows that people are tired of old politics. It’s a statement that we want something new.
Is anyone else concerned about the judicial system’s over-involvement in politics? It’s a slippery slope we’re on.
I’m both excited and skeptical. Can Pheu Thai really deliver this time, or is it just another cycle of broken promises?
I feel that no matter who wins, the real issues affecting common people never get addressed. Maybe it’s time for a complete overhaul?
This win is a clear message. If PP doesn’t adapt and change their tactics, they’ll lose more support by the next election.
Congratulations to Pheu Thai! But we need to keep a close eye on how they use this newfound power.