The thrill of elections never seems to take a backseat in Thailand, and the political drama we witnessed in the recent by-election in Phitsanulok is no exception. This incident has sparked speculation about the future of the People’s Party (PP) in the general elections that are set to happen in three years. The stakes were high for the main opposition party as it fought tooth and nail to maintain its footing in the turbulent political landscape.
The political journey of PP has been akin to a rollercoaster ride. After a series of electoral setbacks, both locally and nationally, they were eager for a comeback. Their predecessor, the Move Forward Party (MFP), suffered a significant blow by failing to secure the Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chairman’s seat in Ayutthaya. The defeat was at the hands of a long-established contender who had captured the hearts of the local populace.
The ripple effects of the MFP’s disbandment were felt till neighboring Pathum Thani. Although the MFP didn’t field a candidate there, the contest was still fierce, with Pheu Thai Party’s influence being too overpowering for them. Once the MFP was dissolved by the Constitutional Court on charges of threatening the constitutional monarchy, the People’s Party emerged from its ashes to represent the stranded MFP MPs.
PP’s first major test came in the Ratchaburi PAO chairman race. The party went all out, viewing this as a potential “revenge” match, a testament to its resilience. High-profile figures like former MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat knocked on doors, while Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit invigorated crowds with passionate speeches. However, in a region filled with conservative yellow-shirt loyalists hostile to any changes in the lese-majeste law, PP found the going tough. Ultimately, they couldn’t seize the victory.
Despite this setback, PP had its eyes on the Phitsanulok by-election, crucial after Padipat Santipada’s vacated seat needed filling. Santipada had previously snagged the seat but fell victim to the same court order that disbanded the MFP. The story took a fascinating twist with his strategic expulsion from the MFP board, allowing him to continue his political journey as a member of the Fair Party and even ascend to the role of Deputy House Speaker. The main opposition party’s restrictions couldn’t hold him back!
Despite throwing everything at the Phitsanulok contest, the PP candidate, Nathachanon Chanaburanasak, faced a narrow defeat to Pheu Thai’s Jadet Jantar. Jadur received 37,209 votes, and Nathachanon fell short with 30,640. Turnout was a modest 54%, reflecting a 20% dip from the previous general election, largely due to the absentee advance voters who typically supported MFP and weren’t around this time round.
PP’s exceptional efforts were seen in urban areas, where they managed to defend their voter base, yet their magic didn’t seem to unfold beyond those familiar boundaries. With chances of winning a government-forming majority still teetering on a careful balance, PP has its work cut out if it aims to cross the 250-seat threshold and steer its legislative objectives, including that controversial Section 112 amendment.
Beyond the immediate election front, another riveting spectacle plays out with attempts at rewriting the coup-sponsored 2017 charter. Seeking changes in the double majority clause seems almost an uphill task. While attempts to scrap the clause met with Senate resistance, the deep political ramifications of such moves have got everyone’s hair standing on end. This requirement, deemed too stringent, effectively stalls the constitutional modernization many politicians clamor for.
The cloak of conservativism currently drapes over the Senate, supposedly dominated by allies of Bhumjaithai, echoing their reluctance towards charter reform. This particular mix is seen as a setup to preserve traditional power dynamics. The Senate’s stringent oversight, particularly the affiliations with the powerful Bhumjaithai, means parties like Pheu Thai or the PP could struggle in any charter amendment without their blessing.
Even within the shifting sands of electoral politics, figures like Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra maintain a comforting lead in the public opinion parade. Still, a lingering intrigue surrounds those elusive 23% undecideds, possibly yearning for the leadership style embodied by Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha. Bhumjaithai’s maneuvering and posturing, reminiscent of Prayut’s leadership stance, positions them as an undisputed conservative force on the political chessboard.
As 2027 edges closer and the canvassing strategies become more intricate, it might just be these conservatively attuned whispers that carry weight, potentially shaping the electoral landscape of tomorrow. Will this be the nod Bhumjaithai needs, or perhaps the pep talk for PP and others striving for political rebirth? Only time will tell.
It’s clear that the People’s Party (PP) has a challenging path ahead if they want to avoid the same fate as the Move Forward Party (MFP). The loss in Phitsanulok is a wake-up call!
But don’t you think PP shows potential in urban areas? It’s not all doom and gloom.
True, they did hold their ground in cities. Still, they need to expand beyond their comfort zones to win a majority.
Urban areas are the future! If they focus there, they might just pull it off in 2027.
I think the PP wasted too much energy on Section 112 and less on real issues. That’s why they’re not winning the rural voters.
Section 112 is a real issue! Ignoring it is ignoring citizens’ rights.
I get it, but winning votes requires a different strategy. They can’t neglect economic concerns for rural areas.
This constant shuffle of parties is just symptomatic of Thailand’s volatile political landscape. It’s fascinating yet frustrating to watch.
Fascinating for some, frustrating for those living with the instability!
People understand that meaningful change won’t happen with PP unless they shift their focus from constitutional reforms to practical economic policies.
Constitutional reform can stabilize the economy long-term, though.
PP’s close loss in Phitsanulok could actually be an opportunity to regroup and address their messaging. Losing by a small margin shows they’re close to turning the tide.
Pheu Thai has always had a stronghold, so it’s not surprising they won in Phitsanulok. PP needs to target swing voters better.
Exactly, focusing on undecided voters can make or break their future elections.
I still believe some people yearn for strong leadership like Gen Prayut’s era. Bhumjaithai might capture these conservative voters.
Old leadership styles can’t solve new problems. We need fresh perspectives, not repeats!
Perhaps, but stability during Gen Prayut’s time is still appealing to many. Change should be gradual.
This by-election showed that ballots aren’t predictable and every party has to stay adaptable.
Absolutely, it’s a volatile environment but adaptability could be PP’s secret weapon.
The issue is not just who wins but how they plan to change the constitution. Without Senate backing, it’s just a pipe dream for any party.
Don’t underestimate the power of public pressure on the Senate for constitutional changes.
I say abolish the Senate! It’s just another tool of status quo repression. Let democracy truly flourish!
Abolishing the Senate would be a mistake. Checks and balances are crucial, even if reform is needed.
Every election in Thailand feels like a chapter out of a thrilling political novel. The twists and turns are never-ending!
Like I said, entertaining but exhausting! At the end of the day, real livelihoods are at stake here. Can’t treat it like a drama.
No matter who wins, it seems the same oligarchs stay in power. Democracy? More like a revolving door.
That’s pessimistic, Sam. Even small electoral shifts can lead to real changes if people engage and push forward.
The environment seems to be a missing topic. With no serious contenders focusing on climate policies, where does that leave us?
Digital transformation should also be on the agenda, but none of these parties seem ready for the 21st century.
Focusing on both the environment and technology is the only way forward. Yet, most politicians ignore these crucial issues.
If PP wants to regain control, they need to package tech and environment policies together to appeal to the younger generation, who are the future swing voters.