Bhumjaithai Party Shakes Political Landscape: Senate Success and Future Implications

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Beware of the ‘blue’ party-the June 26 Senate poll and the June 30 Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chairman election in Pathum Thani have shaken up the political landscape, leaving Thailand’s two largest parties—Pheu Thai and the Move Forward Party (MFP)—more than a little wary of the rising force that is the Bhumjaithai Party.

Led by Anutin Charnvirakul, who is also the Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister, Bhumjaithai has baffled political observers by outmaneuvering both Pheu Thai and MFP in the recent elections. The results have served as a disturbing wake-up call for these parties, which had previously been considered frontrunners for leading a coalition government come the next general election, less than four years from now.

The Senate election for selecting 200 senators across 20 professional groups left many politicians and observers scratching their heads. Over 120 of the winners had connections with the ‘blue’ party, Bhumjaithai, while around 20 others were aligned with MFP and Pheu Thai, respectively. This surprising outcome has led to a flurry of speculation and complaints aimed at the Election Commission (EC). Concerns range from allegations of unqualified candidates registering for the election and signing up for the wrong professional groups to questionable lobbying practices possibly influenced by political parties.

According to sources, lobbying efforts began even before the EC officially announced the Senate poll. Potential candidates named within groups were mobilized to secure support, setting up a more organized voting block during district, provincial, and national levels. Despite the meticulous planning, some parties found the results woefully disappointing, especially those hoping to push key legislation through with support from like-minded senators.

The EC’s delay in announcing the official results, originally expected on July 2, only added fuel to the fire. Former poll watchers, serial petitioners, and Senate candidates have lodged numerous complaints, with some advocating for the complete nullification of the Senate poll and others arguing for individual repercussions for any senators-elect who violated election law.

Irrespective of how the Senate turbulence resolves, it is indisputable that the ‘blue’ party has stealthily entered the Senate, solidifying its role as a formidable contender. The most astonishing revelation is Bhumjaithai’s significant lobbying power, which has seemingly caught the larger parties off guard.

For the Move Forward Party, this means an uphill battle in pushing for controversial bills, like one proposing a blanket amnesty for offenders under Section 112 of Thailand’s Criminal Code, commonly known as the lese majeste law. This turn of events suggests that traditional, relationship-based lobbying methods might overshadow the rapid, broad-reach tactics typically achieved through social media platforms.

Just days after the Senate election, Pheu Thai experienced another jolt during the PAO chairman poll in Pathum Thani. While they did emerge victorious, it was by the slimmest of margins—less than 2,000 votes—over their adversary, Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit Toopkrajang, from the Khon Rak Pathum (Love Pathum) group. Some observers argue that such a narrow win is essentially a political loss, considering Charn Phuangphet, Pheu Thai’s candidate, had substantial resources and support from former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Pathum Thani, once a Pheu Thai stronghold, witnessed a near sweep by the MFP in last year’s general election. Now, it’s reported that Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit is strengthening ties with Bhumjaithai, as the party aims to extend its influence in the lower Central Plains constituencies.

Furthermore, the political career of Pol Capt Chalerm Ubumrung, a Pheu Thai stalwart, might be drawing to a close following his son Wan’s resignation from the party. Wan’s abrupt departure, prompted by his reprimand for attending the PAO election in Pathum Thani, has led to rumors about Pol Capt Chalerm’s potential defection. However, bitter history with Bhumjaithai’s de facto leader, Newin Chidchob, casts doubt on such a move.

The Ubumrungs’ frustration with Pheu Thai isn’t new. Last year, Pol Capt Chalerm publicly severed ties with Thaksin, daring him to officially expel him from the party. Despite a visit from party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra attempting to mend fences, insiders believe the Ubumrungs’ days with Pheu Thai are numbered. Political analyst Thanaporn Sriyakul seems to think their association is over, highlighting the need for Paetongtarn to push aside long-time party members to make way for new, dynamic politicians.

If Pheu Thai fails to rejuvenate itself, it risks falling behind not just to the MFP but also to Bhumjaithai, which has shown its strength in the recent Senate election. Criticisms of Bhumjaithai’s alleged interference notwithstanding, it’s become clear that the political landscape is shifting, and fast.

The tale of Pol Capt Chalerm’s past clash with Newin, including his rejection from Muan Chon Party, adds another layer of intrigue to this evolving political saga. As Thailand’s political chessboard is being reshuffled, it remains to be seen how these power plays will unfold.