A gardener displays a message on his phone, confirming his registration for the digital wallet initiative at Government House on August 1. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu)
The Pheu Thai-led government’s grand digital wallet handout scheme seems set to continue, regardless of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s fate as the Constitutional Court deliberates on his controversial decision to appoint ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a cabinet minister. Political insiders suggest that Pheu Thai’s flagship policy, aimed at invigorating the economy, will proceed as long as the party remains in power.
On Wednesday, the Constitutional Court is slated to decide whether Mr. Srettha will stay in office following his choice to bring Pichit into the fold as a PM’s Office Minister during the last cabinet shuffle. The contention arises from a petition filed in May by 40 former senators. They argued against Pichit’s appointment, pointing out his 2008 conviction for contempt of court, where he was found attempting to bribe Supreme Court officials while defending former PM Thaksin Shinawatra in a notorious land case.
Handout to Proceed No Matter What
Independent political and economic analyst, Somjai Phagaphasvivat, conveyed to the Bangkok Post that even if Mr. Srettha is ousted, the digital wallet program will likely continue unabated. “Registrations have already begun. The handout is anticipated to kick off in the fourth quarter. This policy stays constant,” he affirmed.
He further explained that the supplementary bill, designed to boost the fiscal budget by 122 billion baht to help fund the digital wallet initiative, has already cleared all stages in the Upper House. Adding to this, Assoc Prof Somjai indicated that should Mr. Srettha be dismissed, Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul may be the most probable successor as prime minister.
“Pheu Thai has two other candidates for prime minister. However, one (Chaikasem Nitisiri) isn’t in the pink of health, and the other (Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra) could be considered too young. Therefore, a widely recognized figure among the coalition parties, such as Mr. Anutin, might take the helm,” he opined.
Assoc Prof Somjai also mentioned that it’s unlikely that Bhumjaithai would scrap the digital handout scheme in reprisal for Pheu Thai’s moves to reinstate cannabis as a narcotic, should Mr. Anutin ascend to the prime ministerial post. “Conflict is not in Mr. Anutin’s agenda,” he observed.
The Cannabis Conundrum
Previously, there appeared to be friction between Bhumjaithai, which supports cannabis decriminalization, and Pheu Thai, which seeks to revert it to its narcotic status. Recently, Mr. Srettha hinted at a change in stance by ordering a cannabis control bill to be presented before parliament, signaling potential deregulation. This could be seen as a conciliatory gesture to Bhumjaithai, which had threatened to boycott any initiative to reinstate cannabis as a narcotic.
Varakorn Samakoses, a distinguished economist, echoed similar sentiments to the Bangkok Post. He expressed confidence that the digital wallet handout drive would persist if a Pheu Thai member succeeds Mr. Srettha. However, if a prime minister from another coalition party were to take over, the future of the scheme might become uncertain. “It remains to be seen how funds will be redirected from other sources to support the handout,” Assoc Prof Varakorn mused.
Funding the Future
Originally, the government indicated that funds amounting to 450 billion baht would be sourced from the fiscal budgets of 2024 and 2025. Of this, approximately 160 billion baht would come from the 2024 budget, including about 43 billion baht from the central budget and 122 billion baht from additional allocations. For 2025, 152.7 billion baht would be allocated from the annual budget, with 132.3 billion baht managed from other financial avenues, such as the central budget and surplus agency funds.
In early August, the supplementary bill to enhance the fiscal year’s budget by 122 billion baht glided through all three readings in the Upper House. Mr. Srettha emphasized that about 10 billion baht of this sum would be covered by anticipated government revenues from taxes and other sources, while the balance would come from borrowing. Defending the bill, he stressed the urgency of the stimulus to fortify the economy, stating that waiting until the 2025 fiscal budget was not an option.
Election Promises and Political Maneuvers
Pheu Thai spokesperson Danuporn Punnakanta reassured that the digital wallet scheme would be implemented regardless of Mr. Srettha’s tenure. “The digital wallet is a Pheu Thai initiative, part of our stated policies in parliament. It’s an election campaign commitment that Pheu Thai is determined to honor,” he asserted.
He remained optimistic about Mr. Srettha’s continued leadership but stressed that if not, the scheme would press forward as long as the new prime minister hails from Pheu Thai. He also dismissed the likelihood of a prime ministerial candidate from other coalition parties, given Pheu Thai’s dominance in the House and its two prime ministerial candidates, Ms. Paetongtarn and Mr. Chaikasem. He ruled out the possibility of an outsider being chosen if the court rules against Mr. Srettha.
Siripong Angkhasakulkiat, a deputy Bhumjaithai leader, echoed similar remarks, asserting that the digital wallet scheme’s fate does not rest on Mr. Srettha alone. “If the court rules against him and a new PM from Pheu Thai steps in, the scheme will still move forward. As a coalition partner, Bhumjaithai supports it,” he said, noting the potential economic benefits.
However, a Bhumjaithai insider hinted at possible challenges, such as legal risks pointed out by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), if another coalition party leader takes over. “Pushing the scheme could prove difficult,” the insider warned, highlighting concerns about graft and legal complications tied to the initiative.
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