Back in the whirlwind year of 2016, Donald Trump took the globe by surprise when he clinched the presidency of the United States. Swing states, particularly those within the Rust Belt like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, that historically leaned Democratic, threw their weight behind this unconventional candidate. Fast forward to November, and the narrative repeated itself. The nation’s once-booming industrial hubs stood firm in their support for Trump.
Exit polls offered a fascinating insight: in pivotal states, a hefty chunk of the working-class electorate—those who skipped the college route and earned between $30,000 and $99,999 annually—entrenched their support for Trump. This included voters from diverse racial backgrounds—white, Latino, and black alike.
However, this political shift isn’t a phenomenon iconized by American borders alone. Take a peek across the Atlantic, and you’ll see 57% of workers, back in June, casting their ballots for the far-right National Rally during the initial phase of the French parliamentary election. Similarly, September saw 50% of the working class in Austria rally around the populist Freedom Party, while Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) nabbed 46% of workers’ votes in the Brandenburg state elections.
For an intriguing case study, look no further than Poland. The right-wing party, Law and Justice (PiS), which commanded the nation’s helm from 2015 to 2023, illuminates why populist and authoritarian rhetoric stirs increasing appeal in both Europe and the U.S. and perhaps, how center-left forces might woo back these alienated workers.
PiS ticked off several legislative triumphs during its tenure, notably slashing the retirement age, hiking the minimum wage, and initiating direct financial aids for families with children below 18. By championing causes traditionally associated with social democrats, PiS aligned itself with the economic interests of the Polish working class. Consequently, this strategy bore fruit as almost half of this demographic endorsed PiS in the previous year’s parliamentary elections, even as a coalition of opposition parties ended forming a majority government.
My own exploratory research conducted with the Foundation for European Progressive Studies and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, delved into the psyche of less-educated, lower-income voters nestled in Poland’s quaint towns and villages. The findings? An almost complete disconnect between this cohort and the center-left. Participants in my focus groups equated social-democratic parties with agendas revolving around LGBTQ+ rights, sexualization of the young, acceptance of migrants, and perceived threats to national sovereignty. Instead of traditional media, they consume information via niche social media groups, proudly maintaining an anti-establishment stance and viewing themselves as warriors for truth and survival.
These observations resonate with a broader systematic review comprising 51 studies, spotlighting the waning support for center-left factions across the West. Be it the U.S. Democrats, Western European social democrats, or progressive fronts in post-communist territories, all have seen their clout with the working class dwindle. To flip the tide, implementing policies that favor workers and transforming how they engage with this essential voter segment is vital.
Progressive movements on both sides of the Atlantic have long campaigned on propelling policies conducive to working families. Investing in public services, healthcare, education, and infrastructure occasionally paved their path to electoral victories, evident during the 2008 and 2020 U.S. presidential wins by Barack Obama and Joe Biden, respectively, and the UK Labour Party’s recent triumph over the Conservatives. But alas, these parties frequently falter in delivering on these promises once in power.
The center-left must embrace the reality that communicating with blue-collar voters demands a departure from the tactics employed with affluent urban elites. Instead of dismissing apprehensions about migration, globalization, and the green transition, the Democrats Stateside and their social-democratic counterparts in Europe must tackle these issues head-on via the platforms blue-collar voters frequent. There’s a lesson to glean from the far-right’s dominance on platforms like TikTok and X, showcasing that crafting compelling pro-democratic narratives tinged with positivity is less about aesthetic preferences and more about political exigency.
The working class has been integral in the scaffolding of liberal democracies for the past two centuries. From championing universal voting rights to spurring the establishment of social programs, their contributions fortify economic prosperity and political stability. In today’s tumultuous climate, center-left parties bear the mantle of creating an inclusive space for blue-collar voters, ensuring these influential voices find resonance under their banner. This calls for earnest outreach, taking workers’ concerns seriously, and meeting them in their arena. Failure to do so could see the far-right continuing to exploit the disillusionment of workers, channeling it into a potent, anti-democratic force.
©2024 Project Syndicate
Bartosz M Rydliński is an esteemed assistant professor of political science at Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University in Warsaw.
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