Thaksin Shinawatra’s Strategic Move in Pathum Thani PAO Election: Pheu Thai’s Fight for Political Resurgence

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A covert turf war has erupted in Pathum Thani, as titans of national politics quietly clash, according to insiders. The Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chairman election, happening on June 30, lays bare the dynamics spurred by political alignments among the main coalition and opposition powerhouses.

The Pheu Thai Party, which saw its long-standing reign in Pathum Thani shattered in the previous election by the Move Forward Party (MFP), is fervently electing its PAO chairman. This election is a crucial showcase of Pheu Thai’s resolve to regain its popularity. Eyeing expansion, coalition partner Bhumjaithai Party is vying to bolster its influence beyond its traditional strongholds in the lower Northeast, while MFP may unexpectedly support Bhumjaithai, according to sources.

This high-stakes PAO contest drew significant attention when former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, recently paroled, visited Pathum Thani. He urged the red shirts, Pheu Thai’s core followers, to unify and support the ruling party. His appeal, during an event celebrating a monk ordination of a prominent local political figure’s son, was seen as a clear signal of Pheu Thai’s effort to reclaim its leading position in Thai politics.

Critics argue Thaksin, although not an official Pheu Thai member, increasingly influences the party’s decisions at his own peril. He denies orchestrating the party’s affairs, likely wanting to avoid legal repercussions for non-member involvement in party matters. Pheu Thai desperately needs every ally to regain footing after nearly a decade in the political wilderness post the 2014 coup led by the National Council for Peace and Order.

The looming question is whether Pheu Thai can revive its appeal in time for the next general election, a little over three years away. To reconstruct its red shirt base, the party believes grassroots efforts are essential. Thaksin, seen as the de facto leader, is perceived as the ideal figure to rekindle the red shirts’ loyalty. His campaign trail has stretched from Chiang Mai to Nonthaburi, Nakhon Ratchasima, and now Pathum Thani.

Winning seats in a general election hinges on cultivating connections with constituents, tested in Local Administrative Organisation (LAO) and PAO elections. Aspiring MPs often first achieve prominent LAO positions or leverage influential LAO figures to secure widespread support.

In Pathum Thani, Pheu Thai has courted several influential local political families to challenge their most formidable adversary, Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit Toopkrajang, a former Pathum Thani PAO chairman, in the upcoming PAO poll. Once a loyal Thaksin protégé, Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit had the ex-premier ceremoniously pin his new police rank insignia—a symbol of his high esteem for Thaksin.

However, after Thaksin fled into exile following the 2006 coup, Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit ventured into local Pathum Thani politics, establishing robust ties with Bhumjaithai, eager to expand in the lower Central Plains. Bhumjaithai’s strategy involves securing Pathum Thani and progressing up the Chao Phraya River to win seats in neighboring Ayutthaya, which borders Ang Thong, currently represented in parliament by Paradorn Prissanananthakul of Bhumjaithai.

This growing alliance between Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit and Bhumjaithai disconcerted Thaksin, who endorses Charn Phuangphet as Pheu Thai’s candidate for the June 30 PAO election. Charn relies heavily on red-shirt voters for a winning chance. Yet, recent Nida (National Institute of Development Administration) survey results show an uphill battle: Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit leading with 31%, Charn trailing at 28%, and 17% undecided.

The undecided cohort, likely MFP supporters, face a dilemma: choose between Pheu Thai’s candidate or Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit, who runs under the Khon Rak Pathum (Love Pathum) group. Surprising many, MFP, which routed Pheu Thai in last year’s general election in the province, chose not to field a candidate or endorse another party’s candidate, citing time constraints for candidate selection.

An insider revealed MFP is mired in an internal conflict over candidate choice. Observers speculate if MFP supporters still harbor resentment over Pheu Thai’s perceived betrayal, ditching their alliance to form a government with conservative parties, this could benefit Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit. Bhumjaithai, friendly with him, might gain new ground in Pathum Thani.

Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the Senate election law’s legality allows the final Senate contest stage to proceed, but it doesn’t offer the Election Commission (EC) much respite. Sections 36, 40(3), 41(3), and 42(3) of the organic Senate election law were scrutinized following a petition by Senate candidates. Despite the court’s unanimous ruling validating these sections, challenges persist.

Irregularities like bribery for votes and applicants falsifying qualifications plague the election process, raising concerns about the EC’s effectiveness. EC chairman Ittiporn Boonpracong admitted to receiving 80 complaints as of June 16, vowing swift investigations and justice for all candidates. Political analyst Olarn Thinbangtieo criticized the EC’s “endorse first, disqualify later” policy, urging aggrieved candidates to challenge it in the Supreme Court’s Election Division.

Despite these issues, the Senate election race proceeds with 3,000 candidates competing for 200 seats in the final voting round on June 26. Results are expected by July 2. Legal scholar Jade Donavanik noted the court’s ruling supports the Senate election law, but not the EC’s handling of the election, which has been marred by accusations of political and interest group interference.

As Pathum Thani’s PAO election unfolds and the Senate election looms, both contests underscore the turbulent interplay of local and national political forces, revealing the intricate and often contentious pathways to power.