The powerhouse Pheu Thai Party, once a political titan, is vigorously trying to resuscitate its popularity just in time for the next general elections, even though they loom a little more than three years away. But is their effort too little too late?
In the middle of this political drama, observers are buzzing about the rapid but quiet strides made by their coalition cohort, the Bhumjaithai Party. This underdog, led by Anutin Charnvirakul, is stealthily positioning itself to not just rival but potentially surpass Pheu Thai in terms of size and influence before the next election cycle. Imagine a scenario where the ruling party has to traipse behind Bhumjaithai, now taking the spotlight as the second largest party. It’s like a political David and Goliath story, but who’s David and who’s Goliath can be debated fiercely!
Fast-forward to the next poll, Pheu Thai could face a serious showdown. The main opposition, the Move Forward Party (MFP), hailed as winners of last year’s election, now heads the liberal democracy camp. Meanwhile, Bhumjaithai is emerging as the new leader of the conservative bloc—a mantle Pheu Thai used to claim. This switcheroo is giving Pheu Thai the political jitters as they scramble to regain lost ground.
However, whether their frantic efforts will suffice to surpass their rivals is a huge if. The party has been reconnecting with local political heavyweights, focusing on big wins in the constituency system for the next polls. With 400 constituency seats and 100 party-list seats up for grabs, they’d need to secure 200 constituency seats and 50 list ones to snag an outright majority in parliament. But here’s the juicy bit: the MFP’s meteoric opinion poll rise, Bhumjaithai’s sharpened political strategies, and former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s notably cushy treatment by the justice system aren’t doing Pheu Thai any favors.
As of the end of June, Pheu Thai’s popularity was tanking, thanks to the MFP and its chief adviser, Pita Limjaroenrat, whose star power was soaring according to a quarterly poll by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida). The MFP’s gains were unabashedly solid, even as the government strained to get the economy back on track.
In stark contrast, a mere 12% of voters backed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, down from 17% in the previous survey. Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest scion, also saw a drop from 6% to 4.8%. Conversely, Mr. Pita maintained his lead among prime ministerial hopefuls with a 45% approval rating, up slightly from the previous 42%.
The analyst pinned Pheu Thai’s rating nosedive on their shortage of headline policies to reignite a stale economy. Their flagship digital wallet scheme was delayed over a year and subjected to public ridicule for its restrictive spending conditions.
The longer Pheu Thai drags out these economic stimulus programs, the more voters are veering towards the MFP, their hopes pinned on the party because it hasn’t faced the grime of governance yet.
Adding fuel to Pheu Thai’s woes, the no-prison stint of Thaksin post-exile left a bad taste in voters’ mouths. Had he seen through his one-year sentence, it might have shown a gesture of respect for the royal pardon; instead, it became a point of contention, with critics deeming Thaksin more of a liability than an asset.
Meanwhile, Bhumjaithai has been dogged by allegations of covertly bolstering its Senate supporters, despite legal immunity from political meddling. After the so-called “blue-affiliated” victors linked to Bhumjaithai won, pundits couldn’t ignore the party’s cunning lobbying prowess.
The analyst posited that Bhumjaithai is on a strength-to-strength journey leading up to the next general election, potentially winning the yellow-shirt backing and cementing its leadership in the conservative camp. This raises the stakes for Pheu Thai, already struggling to hold its neo-conservative status.
With eyes fixed on the upcoming Constitutional Court ruling on the future of the Move Forward Party (MFP), one analyst suggests the party’s days are numbered. The court intends to address a petition from the Election Commission (EC) challenging the MFP’s stance on revising the lese majeste law, which could lead to the party’s disbandment.
The EC sought the court’s intervention to dissolve MFP for allegedly threatening the constitutional monarchy. A potential ban on party executives from future elections and a ten-year prohibition from political leadership were also requested.
In defense, the MFP argued the EC didn’t follow proper regulations and submitted a supporting statement from law expert Suraphol Nitikraipote, who contended their actions were lawful expressions of free speech under democratic principles. He also argued that MPs’ actions for bail guarantees should not implicate the party.
However, Thanaporn Sriyakul, of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, foresees a stormy future for the MFP, predicting dissolution. Yet, this time, disbandment won’t lead to “cobra” MPs switching sides, as seen in previous administrations. MFP’s MPs, having experienced defectors’ downfall, are expected to consolidate in a newly formed party rather than defect to coalition groups.
Mr. Thanaporn predicted the MFP MPs would regroup under a new banner if dissolved, possibly emerging even stronger in subsequent elections. He pointed out that the absence of key figures like Pita Limjaroenrat wouldn’t cripple them, just as they survived without previous leaders, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Piyabutr Saengkanokkul. The new party iteration could dominate the political landscape even more robustly.
With third-generation leaders like Sirikanya Tansakul, Veerayut Karnchuchart, and Dechrat Sukkamnerd, the party is poised for victory, wielding deep economic insight to clinch the next election win.
Bhumjaithai rising above Pheu Thai? That’s a joke! With their shady practices and backdoor dealings, they’ll never earn the people’s respect.
But isn’t all politics a bit shady? At least Anutin knows how to play the game. Better him than the corrupt Pheu Thai or the newbie MFP.
Knowing how to play the game isn’t the same as having integrity. Anutin is just another power-hungry politician.
Every party has its skeletons. Bhumjaithai stands a real chance because they focus on pragmatic solutions, not just empty promises.
I can’t believe people still support Pheu Thai after all the scandals. They had their chance and blew it.
Scandals exist in every party, but Pheu Thai has a track record of substantial policies. Remember the healthcare initiatives?
Initiatives are great, but what good are they if the leadership is corrupt? We need a clean slate.
The drama around Thaksin is so played out. Thaksin’s return is just a distraction from the real issues. Let’s focus on policy, not personalities.
Exactly! It’s idiotic to shape our votes around individuals when we should be thinking about party policies and competency.
MFP’s potential dissolution is a blatant attack on democracy. They’re the only real opposition right now.
But their stance on lese majeste is too extreme. We need to protect our constitutional monarchy; it’s a delicate balance.
Reform isn’t abolishment. A mature democracy can handle constructive criticism of its institutions.
Agreeing with @Grower134. You can respect the monarchy and still push for necessary reforms.
Bhumjaithai’s steady climb is because they’re focused on real, actionable items. No drama, just policy execution.
Or maybe it’s because they’re sneaking around legal loopholes and backdoor lobbying? Just saying!
MFP will regroup and come back stronger. Disbanding them will just make their movement more unified and resilient.
I always find it amusing how people are so quick to dismiss Pheu Thai, given their historical performance. Every party has its ups and downs.
Is anyone paying attention to the economy? We need leaders who can actually deliver economic growth, not just political theatre.
Totally! That’s why Bhumjaithai is gaining ground—they’ve been emphasizing economic policies from day one.
I doubt any party will make significant changes. It’s the same faces with new banners. We need fresh blood in politics!
Agreed, but we can’t ignore the experience. Fresh faces might lack the know-how to navigate the political landscape effectively.
What’s frustrating is how the media focuses on party drama instead of policy impact. Voters need better information!
All these power plays are fascinating, but real progress will only come when parties focus on long-term vision, not short-term gains.
Absolutely! Voters should push for comprehensive policy plans from all contenders, not just get swayed by fleeting popularity.
Bhumjaithai’s growth can only mean more political maneuvering. Real change comes from grassroots movements, not top-down control.
True, but grassroots movements need political allies to get anything done. It’s a symbiotic relationship.
I wonder if Pheu Thai will ever rekindle its former glory. They used to be the go-to party for many.
I’m just waiting for the day when we stop recycling old politicians and start looking toward new ideas and faces.
What this country really needs is less political friction and more unity. Too much in-fighting is tearing us apart.
Spot on. Political unity for national interest should trump personal and party ambitions.