Thaksin Shinawatra and Anutin Charnvirakul’s Golf Retreat: A Pivotal Moment in Thai Political Unity

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A touch of golf therapy. A recent Shinawatra weekend retreat to Khao Yai was anything but private and had tongues wagging when Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul paid a surprise visit to the family. From the casual get-together, pictures were released that sparked wild interpretations and speculation.

The pictures showed Mr. Anutin and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra playing golf, with the Bhumjaithai leader crooning along as Thaksin and his Pheu Thai leader daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, sang their favorite number, “When You Say Nothing at All,” by Ronan Keating. Reading between the lines, observers believe the retreat aimed to cool tensions between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai.

Pheu Thai cannot afford to lose the parliamentary support of Bhumjaithai, which commands 71 seats, the third-largest party. After almost a year as coalition allies, the two parties began to see friction reaching its peak. The Khao Yai retreat was thought to be an attempt to heal the rift. The solution could lie in astute horse trading, culminating in a power-sharing strategy that keeps both parties in government and ups the ante in their bid to be re-elected in the next election.

The two parties had their first coalition unity test early this year when Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin gave an interview to France 24, a French state-owned news outlet, in which he disclosed the government’s intention to rein in the use of cannabis, decriminalized in 2022. He reportedly spoke in favor of reclassifying cannabis as a narcotic, arguing the social ramifications of cannabis legalization outweigh the economic gains from its medical use and research purposes.

The premier’s reclassification plan has since been followed up with Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsutin actively and vocally advocating for cannabis to be relisted as a narcotic before the year is out. However, the plan surprised Mr. Somsak’s predecessor, Dr. Cholnan Srikaew, who had declared while he was public health minister that the cannabis legalization issue was too far along to turn back the clock.

As the proposed relisting groundwork got underway, Bhumjaithai refused to take the matter lying down since legalization was one of its flagship policies pushed through during the previous Prayut Chan-o-cha administration. The re-criminalization plan was first floated by Justice Minister Thawee Sodsong, who, despite being leader of the Prachachart Party, professes extraordinary closeness to Pheu Thai. It wasn’t long before Mr. Srettha took his cue and announced the government was moving towards getting cannabis back on the narcotics list.

Mr. Somsak also rose to the occasion with cannabis re-criminalizing steps he had laid out. However, a major stumbling block is approaching. The planned restoration of cannabis as an illicit drug must gain approval from the Office of the Narcotics Control Board (ONCB), as was done under the previous government when the plant was decriminalized. This time, though, the ONCB is not chaired by the prime minister but by Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, who also leads the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party.

Mr. Pirapan has reportedly pointed to the inconsistency in the way cannabis is now being pushed towards relisting by the very same people in the ONCB who decriminalized it in the first place. The deputy premier also noted the absence of a fundamental argument presented to the board that could decisively convince him of the critical need to make cannabis illegal again.

Then came the Khao Yai retreat, which Mr. Srettha did not attend. The focus of attention was on what was said between Mr. Anutin and Thaksin, who wields considerable influence over Pheu Thai and is widely respected by party stalwarts during their friendly round of golf. Barely two days after the retreat, Mr. Srettha held out an olive branch by ordering a draft bill to regulate cannabis use for medical and research and development purposes, signaling that the plant would be left off the narcotics list.

It was reported that Mr. Srettha had called a meeting with Mr. Anutin and Mr. Somsak to resolve political tensions over cannabis’ re-criminalization. An observer noted that Pheu Thai could not have chosen a worse time to raise the idea of returning cannabis to the narcotics list. The ruling party needs all the support it can muster from coalition partners to legislate its Digital Wallet handout scheme. If Pheu Thai had pursued its “reckless” course of action with cannabis, Bhumjaithai would exact revenge by voting down the wallet bill and leaving the government.

Without Bhumjaithai, the wallet bill would not have seen the light of day. The observer said Bhumjaithai has gone from strength to strength after being identified as the “blue party” with which a staggering 150 of the 200 Senate members have maintained close ties. Possible proof of such ties was played out in the July 23 election of the Senate speaker and two deputy speakers. Mongkol Surasajja, a former governor of Buri Ram, Bhumjaithai’s political heartland, raked in an impressive 159 votes to become the speaker.

Tension between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and coalition partner the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) is expected to rise following the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the fate of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin on Wednesday, according to observers.

Paroled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Pheu Thai’s de facto leader, is said to be upset with PPRP leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and reportedly believes that the “general of Baan Pa” is the mastermind behind the petition filed by former 40 senators against Mr. Srettha. “Baan Pa” refers to the Five Provinces Bordering Forest Preservation Foundation, located at the 1st Infantry Regiment in Bangkok’s Phaya Thai district. The foundation is believed to be Gen Prawit’s unofficial office.

After the Constitutional Court agreed to hear the petition against Mr. Srettha, Thaksin raised questions about the former senators and their motives. The ex-premier was also quoted as saying: “If there’s any trouble, it comes from someone in the forest. But it doesn’t involve me. It involves the government.”

The petition against Mr. Srettha has to do with the controversial appointment of Pichit Chuenban as the Prime Minister’s Office minister in the last cabinet reshuffle. According to the 40 former senators, Mr. Pichit was unfit to assume a cabinet post because he served jail time for contempt of court in 2008 for attempting to bribe Supreme Court officials in a controversial land case involving Thaksin.

The Constitutional Court is being asked to rule if Mr. Srettha should be removed from office under Section 170 (4) and (5) of the charter, which deals with the ethics of cabinet ministers. The prime minister is supposed to have been aware of Pichit’s questionable background when appointing him minister.

The ex-senators’ petition targeting Mr. Srettha is suspected to be a move to change the prime minister, which would give Gen Prawit, the PPRP’s prime ministerial candidate, a shot at the top post. Gen Prawit is also said to have infuriated Thaksin further after he took Wan Ubumrung, son of Pheu Thai stalwart and list MP Pol Capt Chalerm, under his wing as a PPRP member. Mr. Wan quit the ruling party after being rebuked by party executives for fraternizing with a party opponent in a recent local election in Pathum Thani.

The relationship between the Ubumrung family and the Shinawatras has turned sour, with Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn, Thaksin’s daughter, having removed Pol Capt Chalerm from the party’s MP chatroom in the Line application. According to Ms. Paetontarn, kicking Pol Capt Chalerm out of the group chat resulted from a text message he sent declaring he was moving to a new party. His subsequent messages had made other MPs feel uncomfortable, she said, but did not elaborate.

A rumor has spread recently that the PPRP risks being booted out of the coalition, with analysts saying the target of the purge is more likely to be a group controlled by Gen Prawit. The PPRP is said to comprise two camps led by the party leader, who controls 13 MPs, and PPRP secretary-general and Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Thamanat Prompow, who commands the remaining 27 lawmakers.

Capt Thamanat is said to have aligned himself more with the ruling party than Gen Prawit, so between the two camps, the axe is more likely to fall on Gen Prawit’s group, according to observers. Even if Gen Prawit’s group is shown the door, the coalition will still hold a solid 301 votes, a strong majority. However, a group of 21 Democrat MPs led by party leader Chalermcha Sri-on is waiting in the wings to strengthen the government.

In the event of the Democrats replacing Gen Prawit’s group, the Pheu Thai-led government will have 322 votes from 12 political parties, with some political observers already giving it a nickname: the “Ruam Chart” (integrated nation) government. The opposition camp will drop from 185 MPs to 164, a number which could fall even further if some MPs from the dissolved Move Forward Party decide to cross the floor to government parties.

However, Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, told the Bangkok Post that a real “Ruam Chart” government will materialize only if Capt Thamanat’s camp is expelled from the PPRP and is forced to find a new political party within 30 days. “If they have the guts to ask Gen Prawit to expel them, it is highly likely they will join the Pheu Thai Party and fulfill the ruling party’s big boss’s wish,” he said.

According to Mr. Thanaporn, one of Thaksin’s wishes is to make Pheu Thai bigger than the MFP so the ruling party can have more bargaining power over other parties. Following the court ruling to dissolve the MFP on Wednesday, the number of MPs formerly attached to the MFP has dropped to 142, compared with Pheu Thai’s 141. The drop is attributed to former MFP executives being banned from politics for 10 years by the Constitutional Court order made in tandem to the disbandment ruling.