The forthcoming elections for Provincial Administration Organisation (PAO) presidents on February 1 are set to be a grand spectacle, engaging and intense, but not necessarily synonymous with achieving true decentralisation. As political analysts have remarked, national politicians still cast long shadows over local politics, and the central government can’t seem to loosen its grip on the reins of power.
The allure of decentralisation may be particularly tantalising, yet there stands the stubborn reality: several prominent figures from the pantheon of national politics are flexing their muscles in regional campaigns, treating the local political stage as an apprenticeship for grander schemes. Nothing short of a strategic masterclass by heavy-hitter former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his ilk, such as Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, chairman of the Progressive Movement, paints this political canvas.
In fact, these PAO polls are not merely a trivia of local importance but a strategic chessboard for national ambitions, where alliances with local political clans are cultivated, ensuring a fortified support base is in place for the grander showdown of the 2027 general election.
The Progressive Movement, with its intriguing links to the erstwhile Move Forward Party and the People’s Party (PP), stands amongst familiar names as Thanathorn lends his charismatic touch to PP campaigns across various provinces, all set for a vigorous contest in the 47 provinces racing for PAO presidency and membership on the first day of February.
Forty-seven provinces are gearing up for intensely competitive elections to fill positions left vacant by PAO presidents who, like shooting stars, brightened the political sky for a fleeting moment before resigning just before their terms concluded on December 19, 2024. Election scenarios within 60 days aren’t only political formalities but arenas reflecting the centralization vs. decentralization tug-of-war.
Stithorn Thananithichot, navigating the labyrinth as the director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, offers a poignant perspective. He interprets Thaksin’s active involvement in Pheu Thai campaigns as a clear nod toward priming the party’s motor for a robust run in the national elections, with local politicos doubling as pivotal pawns on this grand chessboard.
Ponder this: A Pheu Thai-led government, straddling state mechanisms and snuggly embraced by central government agencies, all hesitant to hand over authority, if you will, is less about practices of partitioning power and more about the perpetuation of central dominance. The empire of influence ensures national politicians remain enthroned, even in the “local” sphere.
In parallel, candidates, ostensibly affiliated with the Bhumjaithai Party, a stalwart coalition member, contribute to the fabric of political affairs, with its leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, helming the Interior Ministry, instrumental in piloting local administrations.
Stithorn throws down an analytical gauntlet: “Local politics cannot shake off the influence of national politicians. Therefore, whichever party wins the most seats for PAO chiefs, it is unlikely power will be devolved to local people. It’s a Herculean task to tempt any party away from the juicy benefits of a cake carefully baked and iced by centralized structures.”
Yuttaporn Issarachai, a sharp mind in political science at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, echoes the sentiment. Decentralisation seems as likely as spotting a unicorn. The PP’s limited governmental presence serves as a reminder of the long and winding road ahead for their decentralisation dreams. Local voters tend to prioritize tangible help over party doctrine, opting for familiar faces who alleviate immediate woes over lofty political agendas.
Among PAO election contenders, veterans like former chiefs and deputies represent a robust presence. As the ballots are cast, the soul of local politics remains intertwined with the national tapestry, ensuring there is no stark departure between the voter bases of parties like Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, and the PP, whether ballots are cast locally or nationally.
As the curtain rises on outcome predictions, the analysts confide that Pheu Thai is poised to shine, particularly in the North and Northeast where they claim home turf advantage. The BJP isn’t left to languish in the shadow either, expected to pocket several wins in provinces like the Central Plains Region, the East, and the notably sunny South.
Meanwhile, a motley crew of independent candidates tethered to local political clans and the PP are anticipated to garnish remaining seats, casting a refulgent light on areas such as Nakhon Nayok, Samut Prakan, and the always picturesque Phuket.
The sage Olarn Thinbangtieo from Burapha University predicts BJP may well clinch over half of those coveted seats, with Pheu Thai trailing within respectable proximity. Local clans and the valiant PP round out the competitive field.
But perhaps Thanaporn Sriyakul, the discerning director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, epitomizes the dynamic and nuanced political tale unfolding in these intricate PAO elections. He wagers that Thaksin’s calculated involvement, coupled with Pheu Thai’s potent sway over state apparatus, positions the party as the odds-on favorite to dominate the PAO electoral landscape.
In sum, these tumultuous elections embody a theatrical performance of political allies acting in a time-honored tradition of strategic jockeying. As the PAO polls crack open a window into Thailand’s political future, one can’t help but wonder if decentralization will ever be more than a tantalizing, elusive dream, still making its way across the political horizon.
The PAO elections are just a charade. There’s no real decentralization happening; the national politicians will always be in control!
I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom. The progressive movement has been gaining traction locally, and they’re pushing hard for change.
Samantha, I’ve heard that before. Until I see real power shift to local communities, it’s just talk.
Larry D, you’re right! The national big shots will never give up their power. They’re just grooming local leaders for their own political games.
Why do people still believe in these elections? National politicians are just using these local thrones to prop up their national empires.
True, but local elections are the stepping stones for young, fresh political faces. It’s a necessary evil to bring in change eventually.
I agree with Amber. Grassroots is where the change starts. If new leaders can gain experience at the local level, maybe we can see a better future.
How many times have we heard that, Amber and Suzy? Feels like a never-ending cycle to me.
The Progressive Movement sounds promising, but can they really make an impact against the Pheu Thai machine?
Good question. They’ve got charismatic leaders, but nationalism runs deep in Pheu Thai strongholds.
True, and I wonder if the voters even care about decentralization. They probably just want the immediate benefits the big parties provide.
Until there’s a cultural shift, the allure of power will always reel politicians back. They’re addicted!
But isn’t that human nature? Power is seductive, and politics is no different.
Yes, but isn’t there a way to make the system less about individuals and more about policy? Maybe by educating voters more.
I hope education can bring change, but it needs to be grassroots. Policies are secondary without the right people to believe in them.
Realistically, what do we expect from these elections? Another song and dance from the usual players.
That’s my concern too, Joe. People keep getting disappointed when they pin their hopes on these fake promises.
But isn’t that better than ignoring the process? If we keep engaging, we might push those promises into reality.
Bah, these elections are just a dress rehearsal for the big game in 2027. All these alliances and campaigns are strategic plays.
True that, Victor. Everyone’s just posturing for the general elections, not really thinking about local needs.
Exactly, Oscar. But let’s hope some genuine candidates rise through this pretense.
The role of local clans is vastly underestimated. Their influence can sometimes outweigh national politics at the ballot box.
I’m curious if independent candidates have any chance. They seem vibrant and connected locally.
Most of the time they get overshadowed by the big parties, but if local people trust them, they might sneak a few wins.
Here’s hoping for a few surprises this time around. Someone’s gotta stand up to the establishment.
Isn’t it ironic that decentralization is a central theme? Kind of defeats the purpose with all these national ties.
It seems like the same political families keep resurfacing, whether local or national. Do we ever get to see new faces?
Don’t underestimate voters. They might surprise us by favoring practical benefits over old loyalties.
I’m skeptical of any real change coming from these elections, but I guess we can’t give up just yet.
That’s the spirit, Serena! We still have to participate to flip the narrative eventually.