New Senate Session on July 23: Bhumjaithai’s Growing Influence and Constitutional Challenges in Thailand

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All eyes are set for the highly anticipated first meeting of the new Senate on July 23, a spectacle that promises to be a cornerstone event in the ongoing political drama unfolding in Thailand. With photo ops by Chanat Katanyu capturing the essence of the anticipation, this gathering will mark a key milestone for the Upper House, taking on a pivotal role in charter amendments and the intricate power dynamics among the coalition parties within the government.

Political pundits are buzzing about the overwhelming dominance of senators rumored to have strong alliances with Bhumjaithai, the third-largest political party in Thailand. The recent election of the Senate Speaker and a Deputy Senate Speaker, both perceived to be affiliated with Bhumjaithai, solidifies this theory. This influential “blue” bloc, as it’s commonly referred to, is speculated to be the largest contingent within the Senate, heightening Bhumjaithai’s political influence like never before. Observers estimate that at least 150 senators align with the blue camp, giving them significant leverage.

While these new senators may not follow in their predecessors’ footsteps by participating in the election of a prime minister, their roles remain crucial in other domains. They continue to have a say in passing legislation, amending laws, and revising the constitution. Their responsibilities extend to endorsing key figures in various independent organizations, Constitutional Court judges, and even the Attorney-General. In essence, they provide a vital check on the executive branch.

Under the current constitutional framework, any proposal to amend the charter is a challenging task requiring the backing of at least one-third of the new Senate, equivalent to at least 67 senators. Without their support, pushing through amendments becomes a near-impossible feat.

Hurdles to Charter Change

According to Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, the opposition Move Forward Party’s ambition to amend the constitution—especially the critical Chapters 1 and 2—faces formidable obstacles once it lands in Senate deliberations. The inclusion of lese majeste-related offenses under a proposed political amnesty bill adds yet another layer of complexity. Most senators are expected to align with Bhumjaithai’s stance, which is to leave these core chapters untouched.

Chapter 1 holds special significance as it defines Thailand as a unified kingdom with a democratic regime, where the King serves as the head of state. Chapter 2 delineates the royal prerogatives. Both chapters form the cornerstone of Thailand’s constitutional framework. Echoing the sentiments of Bhumjaithai leader and Interior Minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, the lese majeste clause (Section 112 of the Criminal Code) must also remain intact.

Greater Leverage

Thanaporn further contends that the senators’ alignment with Bhumjaithai mechanics only augments Bhumjaithai’s political sway. This was clearly evident in their clash with the ruling Pheu Thai Party over the contentious issue of reclassifying cannabis as a narcotic. A vocal advocate for the decriminalization of cannabis, Bhumjaithai found itself at loggerheads with Pheu Thai, which sought to reverse this policy.

In a strategic move, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has reportedly ordered the introduction of a cannabis control bill before the parliament, signaling a possible exclusion of cannabis from the narcotic list once again. Analysts view this as a conciliatory gesture toward Bhumjaithai, which had threatened severe repercussions if there was any attempt to reinstate cannabis as a controlled substance.

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University in Chon Buri, elucidated that the “blue camp” isn’t solely composed of Bhumjaithai affiliates. It also includes former government officials, retired military officers, and local politicians entrenched in the old power structure. These entities, tied to the influential blue camp, aim to prevent any legislation that might erode their entrenched privileges.

“Their primary mission is to block any laws that dilute their existing power and advantage,” said Olarn. “Bhumjaithai’s clout is, therefore, growing steadily, underpinned by the strategic support of the Upper House.”

Even attempts to amend sections of the constitution pertaining to the monarchy are likely to face staunch resistance from senators with conservative leanings. Olarn further noted, “Given the Senate is dominated by allies of Bhumjaithai, wholesale rewriting of the constitution seems unlikely. Amendments will probably be incremental and only on a section-by-section basis.”

Similarly, senators closely aligned with Bhumjaithai are expected to secure significant roles on key Senate standing committees, particularly those dealing with ministries under Bhumjaithai control.

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, commented on the strategic importance of these senators. “Anyone—whether inside or outside the Senate—who seeks to attain their goals must negotiate with these influential senators. Certain constitutional provisions are amendable only with their endorsement,” remarked Stithorn.

“While the previous batch of 250 junta-appointed senators was controlled by ‘the uncles,’ the new Senate sees the blue camp wielding similar authority, albeit retaining good relations with the same uncles—former Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, the Palang Pracharath Party leader,” he added.