Super Poll Survey Predicts Close Race in May 14 Election
The latest Super Poll survey indicates that no party will secure a landslide victory in the upcoming May 14 election. Conducted from April 5-13 among 6,073 respondents, the nationwide survey predicts that Pheu Thai will emerge as the winner with 160 House seats in both the constituency and party-list systems.
Projected Results for Pheu Thai Party
According to the survey, Pheu Thai will secure 133 of the 400 constituency seats and an additional 27 of the 100 party list seats. The party had originally aimed to win 310 seats; however, the Super Poll suggests that their best outcome will be 185 seats or 135 seats in the worst-case scenario.
Bhumjaithai Party Expected to Take Second Place
Bhumjaithai is predicted to finish second with a total of 121 seats—101 constituency seats and 20 more from the party list. In an ideal scenario, Bhumjaithai could capture 146 seats, or a low of 96 in less favorable circumstances.
Palang Pracharath Party and Others
The Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) is projected to come in third place with 64 seats, consisting of 53 constituency seats and 11 party-list seats. The party’s best-case performance would see them winning 89 seats, while their worst-case scenario would result in only 39 seats. The Democrats are predicted to obtain 52 seats in total, with 44 from the constituencies and 8 from the party list. The United Thai Nation (UTN) Party is expected to secure 43 seats overall, with 35 from the constituency system and 8 from the party list.
Move Forward Party and Remaining Seats
The Move Forward Party (MFP) is predicted to capture 10 constituency seats and 12 from the party list. In addition to the forementioned projections, the remaining 38 seats—24 constituency and 14 list—will be shared among other lesser-known parties.
Regional Party Strengths
Super Poll data suggests that the Democrats may dominate some southern provinces, while Bhumjaithai’s support could increase in the same region. Pheu Thai is likely to retain most of its seats in the upper Northeast and the North, whereas the PPRP is predicted to fare well in Nakhon Ratchasima, Prachin Buri, and Sa Kaeo.
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