Super Poll Survey Predicts No Landslide Victory in May 14 Election
The latest Super Poll survey reveals that none of the parties will secure a landslide victory in the upcoming May 14 election. The nationwide survey, conducted from April 5-13 with 6,073 participants, forecasts that Pheu Thai will come out on top, securing 160 House seats from both constituency and party-list systems.
Pheu Thai Leading the Charge
Pheu Thai is expected to win 133 out of the 400 constituency seats and an additional 27 out of 100 party-list seats. Although the party has set an ambitious goal of winning 310 seats, Super Poll estimates that it will secure a maximum of 185 seats or a minimum of 135 seats in a worst-case scenario.
Bhumjaithai Comes in Second
Bhumjaithai is predicted to finish as the runner-up with a total of 121 seats, comprised of 101 constituency seats and 20 party-list seats. The party’s seat count could potentially reach 146 at best or fall to as low as 96.
Palang Pracharath Party and Democrats Follow Behind
The Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) is projected to secure the third position with 64 seats—53 from constituency seats and 11 from the party list. The party’s seat count could vary, winning 89 seats in the best-case scenario, and 39 seats in the worst-case scenario. The Democrats, on the other hand, are expected to grab 44 constituency seats and 8 party-list seats, amounting to a total of 52 seats.
United Thai Nation Party and Move Forward Party’s Performance
The United Thai Nation (UTN) Party is predicted to win 43 seats in total, with 35 stemming from the constituency system and 8 from the party list. Meanwhile, the Move Forward Party (MFP) is expected to secure ten constituency seats and 12 from the party list. The remaining 38 seats—24 constituency and 14 party list—will be divided among other parties.
Regional Dominance to Influence Election Outcomes
According to Super Poll, the Democrats have an opportunity to dominate in some southern provinces, while Bhumjaithai is projected to expand its support base in the region. Pheu Thai is likely to maintain most of its seats in the upper Northeast and North, and the PPRP is making significant strides in Nakhon Ratchasima, Prachin Buri, and Sa Kaeo.