Kasikorn Bank’s head of capital markets research believes domestic and foreign forces will keep the baht and global money markets unstable. CIMBT official says higher policy rate is related to global inflation. K Bank expects that if tourism increases at the end of the year, the baht may move back to 35 per dollar. The MPC is expected to raise the policy rate to 1.25 percent in November, boosting the baht. CIMBT hopes a strong tourism revival can save and rebuild Thailand’s economy, like many in the government and private sector. As more tourists come to the country, inflation should reduce as the economy stabilizes and GDP grows. CIMBT recently raised its projection for GDP growth by the end of the year from 3.1% to 3.2%. That would boost the baht and keep it near 37 baht to the dollar, but it’s a temporary fix; the baht will plummet in value following.

With the US currency growing and Thailand’s faltering economy, the baht may fall below 38 per dollar by the end of the year.

Thailand’s inflation rate is anticipated to average 6.2% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023. While the US currency continues to gain value due to hawkish federal fund rate hikes, the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may raise its benchmark policy rate from 0.75 to 1% next week. Amonthep Chawla, head of CIMB Thai Bank’s research economist office, agrees with the analysis and believes the baht would fall to 38 to one to the US dollar, although the bank of Thailand will raise its policy rate to 1.75 percent. He predicts 2.5% by 2023. We expect the central bank to boost its policy rate twice by 50 basis points this year to narrow the gap between Thailand’s rate and the fed funds rate. This should slow baht devaluation.

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