Thaksin Shinawatra’s Campaign to Revive Red Shirts: A Strategic Move Amid Thai Political Shifts

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Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra received a warm reception from the red-shirt supporters in Nakhon Ratchasima this past May. Thaksin, now on parole, is on a mission, traversing the former strongholds of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) in Chiang Mai, Nonthaburi, Nakhon Ratchasima, and Pathum Thani.

His itinerary included informal meetings with key political dynasties, the power brokers behind the red shirts, at various ceremonies and parties. Although these gatherings seemed casual, the underlying intent was profoundly serious. The ruling Pheu Thai Party is striving to reclaim its dominance after losing its status as the leading party to the Move Forward Party in the last general election.

Despite Thaksin’s consistent denial of any involvement with Pheu Thai — he is not formally a member — his provincial tours were clearly a strategic move to rekindle waning support for the party, which traces its origins back to the Thai Rak Thai Party that Thaksin founded before its dissolution by the Constitutional Court for electoral fraud in May 2007.

Primarily, these tours serve as a strategy to reconnect with the red shirts who played a crucial role in Pheu Thai’s landslide victory in the July 2011 general election when the party secured 265 out of 500 seats. This triumph was seen as a form of “revenge” exacted by the red shirts against the Abhisit Vejjajiva administration, which had used military force to end their extended street protests in Bangkok’s commercial district.

Abhisit’s Democrat Party, on the other hand, came second in the 2011 poll with 159 MPs, a slight decline from the previous election. The once fervent supporters of Pheu Thai, the red shirts, saw their influence wane during Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha’s nine-year administration. Political analysts agree this period was long enough for any party’s support base to wane, as was the case with the UDD.

The UDD found itself on the brink of losing its status as a dominant political force due to Pheu Thai’s shortcomings during the Prayut-led government, which was installed by the coup-engineer, the National Council for Peace and Order. The Prayut government significantly impeded Pheu Thai’s efforts to regroup and reconnect with the red shirts.

Simultaneously, a new paradigm shift emerged in the form of the anti-junta pro-democracy movement, directly challenging the status quo. This movement gave rise to the youth-led protests under the Rassadorn group, which spread rapidly among university students and sections of the population previously indifferent to politics.

A close alliance was formed between this movement and the Future Forward Party, which later transformed into the Move Forward Party (MFP) after its dissolution over an illegal loan. The Rassadorn movement overshadowed the red shirts, who were left struggling due to a lack of substantial support from Pheu Thai, even though several UDD stalwarts were seen at many Rassadorn-organized protests against the Prayut administration.

According to a source, despite core UDD members standing alongside the youth-led movement, they were viewed merely as “auxiliaries” to the Rassadorn cause and not as having their own distinct political agenda, which would have allowed the UDD to reassert its influence. The source highlighted a concerning trend: as Rassadorn and the MFP grew in popularity, the UDD found itself increasingly irrelevant.

This prompted Thaksin to initiate a revitalization effort for the UDD. However, according to UDD adviser Tida Tawornseth, reviving the red shirts could be an exercise in futility. Speaking on a political talk show recently, Ms. Tida was skeptical about Thaksin’s ability to restore the former glory of the UDD.

She pointed out that many former UDD members have switched their allegiance to the MFP, donning orange instead of red. The disillusionment, she argued, roots back to Thaksin’s own actions. During his self-imposed exile, he promised to return immediately to lead red-shirt protesters if a military coup were staged. This announcement, relayed to UDD supporters at a mass rally in Bangkok, failed to materialize when the time came.

Moreover, Ms. Tida cited Pheu Thai’s decision to abandon the MFP in favor of forming a coalition government with conservative parties, previously part of the Prayut administration, as the final straw for many red shirts who shared a pro-democracy ideology with MFP and its supporters. This move was perceived as a betrayal, eroding any remaining goodwill.

Meanwhile, in a dramatic twist, an unprecedented Senate election took place—a three-week process involving three rounds of voting by candidates in 20 professional categories. The lack of previous degree requirements and allegations of electoral fraud created a heated debate.

The Election Commission (EC) faced the challenge of certifying the results amid concerns of law violations and irregularities. Ultimately, the EC took two weeks to certify the election results, endorsing all winners and addressing complaints predominantly related to candidate qualifications.

The public and analysts like Thanaporn Sriyakul are keenly watching whether these new senators, some without formal education, can effectively perform their duties. As Mr. Thanaporn noted, educational background shouldn’t be the sole measure of a senator’s capability. Many MPs in the past have proven their mettle despite lacking formal education.