Looking over their shoulder, an air of uncertainty has surrounded the People’s Party (PP) barely two days since it became the rescue vessel for MPs from the dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP). Analysts are speculating on how many parties they will have to move to before they reach the next general election three years from now.
Dissolution is no stranger to these MPs, and the PP could be standing on shaky ground despite having formally accepted former MFP MPs into its fold on Aug 9. More than 140 migrated to their new home and declared outright that despite the MFP’s demise, its MPs have shrugged their shoulders and will soldier on.
This statement adopted as an informal PP slogan embodies these MPs’ defiant spirit in the face of adversity. Before the MFP, its predecessor, the Future Forward Party (FFP), was disbanded by the Constitutional Court in February 2020 over an illegal loan from its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.
This time, grounds for dissolving the MFP centred on the party’s coordinated push to have Section 112 of the Criminal Code—the lese majeste law—amended, which allegedly threatened to ultimately overthrow the constitutional monarchy. Eleven party executives were stripped of their rights to be elected and banned from politics for 10 years by the charter court.
Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut was announced as the leader of the reformist PP during the Aug 9 party launch, while Sarayoot Jailak was declared the party secretary-general. They became part of a surprisingly limited executive board that also included Sirikanya Tansakul as party deputy leader. Ms Sirikanya survived the MFP dissolution onslaught as she was not among the 11 party executives. The PP’s board of five executives is a substantial drop in number from the MFP’s executive line-up.
Analysts believe there are two reasons for this. First, 44 of the MPs who switched to the PP, including Mr. Natthaphong and Ms. Sirikanya, are on course to be indicted in the Supreme Court for a gross breach of political ethics stemming from their co-initiating the Section 112 amendment push. The offense is punishable by a life ban from politics. There was weak justification for installing a large board only to see many of its members possibly being slapped with a life ban.
Second, there may be just a few choices for PP board executive places, considering that many key figures—like MFP chief adviser Pita Limjaroenrat and party leader Chaithawat Tulathon, who secured the party’s victory in last year’s election—are currently serving a 10-year political ban.
The second reason may be highly symptomatic of a serious underlying problem for the PP. Dissolutions remove prominent figures from active roles in respective parties via an associated political ban. This tends to eliminate the opportunity for upcoming politicians to be groomed for future leadership, which can throw a party’s line of succession into disarray, according to a political source.
“Parties and their replacements shouldn’t be disbanded too often. It can pretty much dilute their prowess and appeal,” the source said. Disbandment forced the FFP founders and many upcoming, young politicians, including Mr. Thanathorn as well as his so-called “lieutenants,” Piyabutr Saengkanokkul and Pannikar Wanich into a 10-year hiatus.
The FFP’s demise thrust a second group of politicians to the fore, led by Mr. Pita, who took over the replacement party and named it the MFP. Mr. Pita was later embroiled in the iTV media shareholding fiasco, which saw him suspended as an MP by the Constitutional Court. Before being cleared of the allegation, the MFP installed Mr. Chaithawat as its new leader, and Mr. Pita was moved “upstairs” to become party chief adviser.
The source said the MFP’s fate was sealed when the Constitutional Court ruled on Jan 31 that its efforts to change Section 112 reflected an intention to “chip away” at and subvert the constitutional monarchy. The court also ordered the party to cease all attempts to rewrite Section 112 and prohibited it from amending it through any non-legislative process.
After that came a petition to have the MFP dissolved. The Election Commission resolved to recommend the party’s dissolution to the Constitutional Court. All nine judges of the court found the MFP to be in the wrong and disbanded it on Aug 7.
The latest dissolution has also invalidated 11 MFP executives, such as Mr. Pita and Mr. Chaithawat, for 10 years. From the MFP’s ashes rose the PP with five executives appointed. Mr. Natthaphong and Mr. Sarayoot stood out as the third generation of politicians with a solid connection to Mr. Thanathorn.
But it may also indicate, quite credibly, that the “orange” parties could be confronting as a result of the dissolutions an increasingly narrower choice of politicians to field as new party executives, said the source. Orange is the symbolic color of the FFP, MFP, and PP.
The source believes an indication that there was a limited choice for executives was with Mr. Sarayoot becoming the PP secretary-general. He is said to be a backroom strategist who had to adopt a more prominent role, despite perhaps being better suited for less high-profile roles, to fill the void left by the Aug 7 purge.
All’s not well within the PPRP
While all eyes are on the formation of the next Pheu Thai Party-led government under Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s leadership, unexpected twists and turns within the coalition Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) have been thrust into the spotlight.
With 40 House seats, the PPRP, led by former deputy prime minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, has been allocated a quota of four cabinet seats—two full ministerial positions and two deputy posts.
In the Srettha Thavisin administration, Pol Gen Phatcharavat Wongsuwan, Gen Prawit’s brother and party adviser, was appointed natural resources and environment minister while party secretary-general Thamanat Prompow took charge at the Agriculture and Agricultural Ministry. The two deputy minister posts were given to Santi Promphat, who was made deputy public health minister, and Atthakorn Sirilatthayakorn, a deputy agriculture minister. The future for these politicians is uncertain following the dismissal of Mr. Srettha as prime minister on Aug 14 by the Constitutional Court for a severe ethics violation for appointing ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as PM’s Office Minister in the last cabinet reshuffle.
Yesterday, reports emerged that Capt Thamanat had been dropped from the PPRP line-up, apparently to spare Ms. Paetongtarn from the same legal trouble faced by her predecessor. The PPRP secretary-general could be deemed unfit to hold a cabinet post, given his conviction and incarceration for a drug-related offense in Australia in the 1990s. If this issue is brought up in the Constitutional Court and Capt Thamanat is found guilty of an ethical violation, Ms. Paetongtarn risks losing the premiership for approving his cabinet appointment.
In yesterday’s reports, Pol Gen Phatcharavat was dropped from the cabinet line-up while Mr. Atthakorn is staying put. But these are not the only changes taking place in the PPRP’s cabinet quota.
There is reportedly a deep rift within the party, with Capt Thamanat announcing he was parting ways with party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon over a bitter dispute regarding who the party should nominate for the cabinet seats. The dispute was beyond repair, leading to Capt Thamanat announcing on Wednesday: “It’s time for me to declare my freedom”.
“From now on, I am ready to leave, with other members in tow, for a place where there is happiness,” Capt Thamanat said. “Let’s say that we separate ourselves clearly. But I won’t ruin the nation or the government,” he said, pledging support for the government.
Despite having around 29 of 40 PPRP MPs on his side, Capt Thamanat and his group cannot afford to raise the stakes and leave the PPRP to set up his own party or join Kla Dharma, established earlier as a possible fallback party. MPs can move to another party and still keep their seats if they are expelled by the party they were elected under.
In this case, Capt Thamanat would need an expulsion order issued by PPRP executives to move successfully with their MP status intact. However, it was reported most executives retain close ties with Gen Prawit. At Wednesday’s announcement, Capt Thamanat spoke in a way that suggested he was resigned to the fact he would have to stick with the PPRP despite not apparently being on speaking terms with Gen Prawit. The rift has led both Capt Thamanat and Gen Prawit to present their own cabinet choice list separately to the ruling Pheu Thai Party. However, a source close to the matter said Capt Thamanat’s list, backed by the majority of the party MPs, was favored over the list forwarded by Gen Prawit, whose nominations for cabinet posts were dropped.
At the same time, the two cabinet seats in Gen Prawit’s quota have been handed to the Democrat Party, reported to be the latest addition to the Paetongtarn government. In the PPRP quota, Akara Prompow, is poised to succeed his brother, Capt Thamanat, as the agriculture minister while Mr. Atthakorn gets to retain his deputy agriculture minister post. It was reported Mr. Akara’s name was mentioned in the cabinet minister nominee list Capt Thamanat submitted to Pheu Thai. Mr. Akara was said to be an option in reserve should Pheu Thai, which has the final say on the cabinet line-up, find Capt Thamanat’s qualifications problematic.
The biggest twist, however, has to do with the Democrat Party taking Gen Prawit’s cabinet quota. Democrat leader Chalermchai Sri-on is looking at being named natural resources and environment minister, succeeding Pol Gen Phatcharavat, and party secretary-general Dech-it Khaothong could also be replacing Mr. Santi as deputy public health minister.
Some pundits were already betting on PPRP disintegrating. Earlier reports said Gen Prawit was quitting the PPRP and letting Capt Thamanat have a free hand to run the party. However, Gen Prawit later denied the reports.
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