Pheu Thai’s Strategic Choices: The Rise of UTN and PPRP’s Political Struggles

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Cast out into the chilly waters of political turmoil, it has become starkly apparent who Pheu Thai deems more expendable between the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party. Despite both swimming in the same political river, their distinct origins have ultimately determined their fate.

In an unprecedented move, the newly formed cabinet welcomed only a fractional party into the government, specifically the beleaguered and fractured PPRP. Once the most formidable force in the Prayut Chan-o-cha administrations, the PPRP has dwindled down to a medium-sized party with a mere 40 MPs in the last general election.

The formation of the Paetongtarn cabinet was marred by the PPRP’s deepest internal rift yet, climaxing in a 20-MP faction’s split, led by former party secretary-general, Capt Thamanat Prompow. This significant schism saw Capt Thamanat breaking ties with PPRP leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, a figure he once profoundly respected. The split reportedly stemmed from Gen Prawit’s faction sending their ministerial candidates to Pheu Thai without consulting Capt Thamanat first.

In the labyrinth of political chess, the Thamanat-led group was accorded three cabinet seats. Curiously, this allocation extended to the agriculture portfolio, now helmed by Narumon Pinyosinwat, leader of the Kla Dharma Party and former PPRP politician. Capt Thamanat, marred by a 1990s drug offence conviction in Australia, passed the agriculture role to Ms Narumon, who had been a close ally since the early days of PPRP.

Meanwhile, the Prawit faction found itself cast out of the government. Gen Prawit has publicly asserted that he and the Thamanat faction will remain together in the PPRP, despite their differences. The Thamanat camp is not free to defect to another party unless they are officially expelled, preserving their MP status.

If booted out of PPRP, Capt Thamanat and his faction have several landing pads, including Kla Dharma and Pheu Thai, where Capt Thamanat was formerly affiliated. A cozy homecoming to Pheu Thai could be on the horizon for Capt Thamanat and his group, should they decide to rejoin their former party.

In contrast to the Prawit faction’s opposition stint, the UTN remains snugly within the coalition. Founded by Gen Prayut in his final premiership years, UTN’s uninterrupted presence in consecutive Pheu Thai-led governments has raised eyebrows. Despite both political entities tracing their roots back to the Prayut Chan-o-cha administrations, which Pheu Thai vehemently criticizes, UTN has managed to weather the political storm.

The UTN, formed during Gen Prayut’s latter tenure, broke away from the PPRP after a botched no-confidence debate led by Capt Thamanat in 2021. Discontent within PPRP over Gen Prayut’s seemingly aloof demeanor led to an irreparable rift, prompting Gen Prayut to establish UTN.

The two parties, often branded as fruit from the same “poisonous tree” – a nod to the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) that Gen Prayut headed – faced distinctive fates under Pheu Thai’s scrutiny. Thaksin Shinawatra, the de facto leader of Pheu Thai, harbors animosity toward Gen Prawit, suspecting his prime ministerial aspirations to be a looming threat.

Accusations of a clandestine plot by Gen Prawit to oust Srettha as premier, involving petitions to the Constitutional Court, intensified Thaksin’s suspicions. Although Gen Prawit’s supporters denied these claims, the rumor mill was abuzz with speculation of his behind-the-scenes maneuvers. In Pheu Thai’s quest to secure a successor for Mr Srettha, whispers suggested Gen Prawit’s orchestration to rally coalition and opposition support for his own premiership.

Contrarily, UTN leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga shows no overt prime ministerial ambitions, and with Gen Prayut now a privy councillor, UTN poses no immediate threat to Pheu Thai.

Yet, the PPRP’s future hangs by a thread. The party is essentially divided between loyalty to Gen Prawit, now in political limbo, and Capt Thamanat’s faction that clings to party stalwarts for MP status. Despite the splits, the party’s resilience is put to the test with each passing day.

As Gen Prawit’s political career navigates through potential pitfalls and public scrutiny, including controversial audio leaks, his influence remains vital for the PPRP’s survival. Analysts like Suvicha Pouaree of the Nida Poll Centre argue that the PPRP’s fate is intertwined with Gen Prawit’s continued involvement in politics, at least until the next general election.

Should the PPRP disband, the Bhumjaithai Party stands ready to benefit from the defection of PPRP’s political families. Pheu Thai, on the other hand, must tread carefully, especially given the delicate balance of maintaining popularity and internal harmony.

Pheu Thai’s gamble of integrating Democrat MPs has sparked resentment among its core supporters, stemming from historical grievances over the 2010 red-shirt protest crackdown. Nonetheless, the PPRP’s secretary-general, Paiboon Nititawan, remains optimistic, asserting the party’s resilience and Gen Prawit’s unwavering commitment. Despite the turmoil, the PPRP will persist, with Gen Prawit at its helm.

The PPRP continues to exert pressure on the Thamanat faction by probing Capt Thamanat’s ethical conduct, especially his alleged connections with Thaksin. Proving such ties could plunge Capt Thamanat into deeper political waters, testing the very fabric of his allegiance and leadership.

As the political landscape evolves, the PPRP’s saga unfolds with each chapter more gripping than the last, a testament to the unyielding currents of Thai politics.