Politics can be a tricky game, often resembling a high-stakes chess match where every move counts. In Thailand’s political landscape, Bhumjaithai’s increasing sophistication and strategic maneuvering could be positioning the party to dethrone Pheu Thai as the ruling force in the next election.
However, for Anutin Charnvirakul, the leader of Bhumjaithai, proving he has what it takes to be the next prime minister is no small feat. Bhumjaithai, currently the third-largest party in parliament and the second-largest in the government, has been turning heads with its savvy political moves.
A political insider reveals that despite Bhumjaithai’s current alliance with Pheu Thai, the two parties are quietly jousting for dominance as they seek to expand their political territories ahead of the next election, now three years away. If the Paethongtarn administration manages to last that long, the competition will be fierce.
Pheu Thai is burning the midnight oil to rebuild its support base after nearly a decade under the two consecutive Prayut Chan-o-cha administrations. With former premier Thaksin Shinawatra—the party’s unofficial leader and “mentor”—at the helm, Pheu Thai is reconnecting with influential political figures in provincial areas in hopes of securing another election win through the constituency system. This system is crucial as it determines 400 out of 500 House seats, with the remaining 100 seats determined by party lists.
Pheu Thai’s strategy is to dominate the constituency seats to outpace the People’s Party (PP) in the next poll and reclaim its status as the biggest party. If they can rally influential families to their side, they believe surpassing the 141 seats they garnered in the last election is entirely possible. However, regaining the trust of their previously staunch ally, the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), remains a significant challenge. The once potent UDD has seen its influence wane after nine years under General Prayut, with many members defecting to the Move Forward Party, now reborn as the PP after being dissolved by the Constitutional Court.
Some red-shirt factions were disappointed with Pheu Thai’s decision to ally with the conservative camp, leaving the party with a gaping void in their support base. According to the source, this void might be filled by conservative supporters, although Pheu Thai denies being a “neo-conservative” party.
For Pheu Thai to secure at least 200 seats in the next election without the UDD, they’ll need to break into the PP’s support base and appeal to conservative voters. The PP aims to secure enough seats to govern solo, but they’re in for an uphill challenge to boost their seat count significantly.
Meanwhile, conservative parties like Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation are projected to face difficulties in the upcoming election due to overlapping constituencies, leading to potential vote splitting. Although some speculate that Pheu Thai might attract conservative voters looking for a viable alternative to PP, Bhumjaithai could be a more fitting choice for these voters.
Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai are both eyeing the same prize—domination in key constituencies. Bhumjaithai, with its stronghold in Buri Ram and several other provinces in the lower Northeast, has also shown surprising strength in parts of the South and the Central Plains Region. The party is ambitiously looking to expand its influence into Pathum Thani, Ayutthaya, and Lop Buri.
However, the source cautioned that Anutin’s close ties with Thaksin might erode the trust of conservative voters. Anutin, a seasoned politician known for his party’s staunch defense of the monarchy, could find his standing questioned due to Thaksin’s controversial past, including a lese majeste charge.
Speaking of contentious issues, the Pheu Thai Party’s proposal to amend the charter involving the ethical standards of political officeholders was doomed from the start. Analysts claimed the ruling party had no choice but to back down. They recently submitted a bill to revise parts of the 2017 constitution, including Section 160, which deals with the prerequisites for individuals aiming to become cabinet ministers. Under this section, ministers must have clear honesty and no serious ethical breaches.
Former prime minister Srettha Thavisin’s removal from office brought Section 160 into sharp focus. Analysts warned that it could also target Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who had to divest her shares in multiple businesses before taking office, amid lingering ambiguities over ethical standards.
Stithorn Thananithichot, from the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, opined that Pheu Thai’s attempt to amend these provisions was a lost cause. Thaksin, seen as the real power behind the ruling party, had made political deals with the conservative camp to ensure his return to Thailand. Failing to uphold these agreements might land him in legal trouble, with Srettha’s case serving as a stark reminder.
The proposed amendment aimed to restrict the period for considering ethical breaches to post-2017 charter violations, which would exclude any controversies involving Paetongtarn from consideration. Despite this strategic move, analysts believe the amendment has no chance of passing in parliament.
The proposal faced strong resistance from coalition members and senators in the so-called blue faction, who viewed it as self-serving and a departure from the original spirit of Section 160, meant to prevent morally compromised individuals from holding office. Consequently, Pheu Thai appeared to shelve their amendment plans.
Pheu Thai secretary-general Sorawong Thienthong stated that the amendment wasn’t originally their idea but was proposed by the opposition People’s Party following Srettha’s dismissal. Pheu Thai only introduced specifics to clarify existing provisions.
Considering the widespread opposition and the time left before the bill’s agenda placement, chances are high that Pheu Thai will withdraw the amendment for further review, highlighting the unpredictable and often convoluted nature of Thai politics.
Anutin Charnvirakul will never be prime minister. Bhumjaithai can’t compete with Pheu Thai’s deep-rooted influence.
You might be underestimating Anutin. Bhumjaithai’s growing support in key regions is significant.
I agree, Sara. They have the strategy and the momentum. Pheu Thai better watch out.
But don’t forget Thaksin’s influence in Pheu Thai. That’s hard to rival.
Don’t count out the Move Forward Party yet. They might become a major player again.
The political alliance between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai is just a facade. They’re both vying for dominance.
Exactly! It’s a game of chess, and only one can be the king.
True, but this strategy can backfire if they’re not careful.
Pheu Thai’s attempt to woo conservative voters is laughable. They’re losing credibility.
Thaksin returning to politics is risky for Pheu Thai. It could alienate their new supporters.
Thaksin’s return might actually rejuvenate Pheu Thai. Loyalty runs deep in Thai politics.
But loyalty cuts both ways. His past scandals could also harm the party.
Exactly, Somsak. They need to tread carefully.
Anyone else think the ethical standards in Thai politics are a joke? It’s all smoke and mirrors.
Absolutely, Lee. It’s all about power, not ethics.
Without a doubt. Pheu Thai’s charter amendments are proof of that.
I think Bhumjaithai has a real shot. They’re strong in the rural areas where most votes come from.
Any party that aligns with Thaksin is shooting itself in the foot. His record is too controversial.
But Thaksin still has a lot of support, especially in the Northeast.
Support alone isn’t enough if it comes with too much baggage.
Don’t forget about the military’s influence. They’ve played kingmaker before and could do it again.
The military’s days of controlling politics are numbered. People want true democracy.
Pheu Thai’s strategies seem desperate. They need to stop trying to please everyone and focus on their core values.
The Move Forward Party and PP are wild cards in the next election. Don’t count them out just yet.
Move Forward can win big if they play their cards right.
All these parties are playing dirty. We need new blood in the parliament.
Thai politics will always be unpredictable. Anyone claiming to know the outcome is merely guessing.
True, but it’s fun to speculate. Keeps us engaged.
In the end, it’s not about the parties but about what they can do for the people. Policies matter more than politics.