The government of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is expected to hold its position until the end of its tenure, with around three years left, as none of the coalition parties seem prepared for an early general election, according to former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Mr. Abhisit noted that these parties are still grappling with the challenge of convincing their voters that they are worthy of re-election.
However, a significant weakness of this new coalition lies in the dwindling public confidence in the Pheu Thai Party-led administration. Any fresh negative developments, including misconduct, could worsen the situation and escalate into a full-blown crisis, as per the former Democrat Party leader.
When queried about the possibility of Ms. Paetongtarn being ousted in a military coup like her father, Thaksin, and her aunt, Yingluck, Mr. Abhisit expressed that Ms. Paetongtarn being the third prime minister from the Shinawatra family isn’t a valid reason for a coup. Instead, it would depend on how she manages the government.
“None of us wants to witness the problem of a government being ousted in a coup again,” he remarked. “If this government can solve the country’s issues in an ethically right manner, all parties should be contented.”
Despite his long-standing rivalry with the Pheu Thai Party, Mr. Abhisit acknowledged on multiple occasions that the party has had its share of successes. He believes these achievements should have been integrated into the party’s core policies for progressive development.
“It’s unfortunate that [Pheu Thai members] failed to build on their previous triumphs to propel their party forward,” he commented. “Even worse, they haven’t managed to shake off the [Shinawatra] influence.”
Thaksin’s hold on the Pheu Thai-led government could boost confidence among those who trust in Thaksin’s capabilities and experiences. On the flip side, the risk of Thaksin repeating the same errors he made while in power, which ultimately cost him his career, still looms large.
“If Thaksin hasn’t learnt from his past mistakes, the risk that history will repeat itself remains,” he noted.
Thawisan Lonanurak, an independent academic and former secretary-general of the Northeast Chamber of Commerce, highlighted some prominent challenges for the country’s 31st prime minister. The scrutiny of the 36 new cabinet ministers is likely to take longer than Pheu Thai and Ms. Paetongtarn currently anticipate. If even one minister is later deemed ineligible, the new PM’s fate may hang in the balance.
Former prime minister Srettha Thavisin was expelled from office by a Constitutional Court ruling that found him guilty of a serious ethics violation after appointing ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a PM’s Office minister. This time, the Council of State and the Secretariat of the Cabinet must proceed with utmost caution, advised Mr. Thawisan.
Mr. Thawisan also criticized the overall quality of the prospective cabinet ministers, stating that they are chosen due to their party’s cabinet quota rather than their suitability for the positions. “An academic becomes the agriculture and cooperatives minister, while a policeman is appointed to oversee education administration. These choices are wrong and leave people feeling despondent,” he said.
Allowing a faction within a political party to join the new coalition despite the party’s resolution against it compromises the party’s importance and strength as an institution. This could lead to more factions seeking to broker deals with MPs from other parties to secure cabinet seats, disregarding their party’s resolution in the future.
The performance of the new government will be a critical factor determining whether the coalition can complete its remaining term and Pheu Thai’s chances in the next national election, emphasized Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute.
“If the country’s economy doesn’t show any improvement by the end of this year, the new government could have a short lifespan,” he warned.
Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, the displeased leader of the Palang Pracharath Party, which was excluded from the new government, may not pose an immediate threat to the administration. However, if the Paetongtarn administration fails to enhance its performance, the PM could find herself facing multiple challenges that could jeopardize her career, Mr. Stithorn cautioned, adding that Gen Prawit still has a chance to turn the tables on her.
I think it’s a disaster waiting to happen. History will repeat itself; another Shinawatra, another failure.
That’s pretty harsh. Every government has its challenges. It’s not fair to write her off just because of her family.
True. Also, Paetongtarn might bring a new perspective. Not everything should be pre-judged based on the past.
@Maya L. & Beth, you’re overlooking the pattern here. It’s been the same with the whole family.
Patterns can change, grower134.
Why do people keep putting their faith in the Shinawatras? Haven’t they learned their lesson?
Because people have short memories and they want immediate benefits.
The Shinawatras did have some successes. We can’t ignore that.
Immediate benefits versus long-term sustainability. Are we thinking ahead?
I agree with you on that. Short-term gains often overshadow long-term strategies.
An academic as the agriculture minister and a policeman as the education minister?! This is ridiculous!
Totally agree. These appointments don’t make any sense!
Maybe they’re trying for a new approach or cross-field perspectives?
Lorie, that’s just naive. Specialized roles need specialized people.
The coalition parties just care about their seats, not the country.
Unfortunately, that’s politics everywhere. Priorities are often skewed.
It’s even more blatant in this case. The horse trading is so obvious.
If Paetongtarn manages to steer clear of her father’s errors, she might have a chance.
The scrutiny of the new cabinet will be a major hurdle. The past doesn’t look promising.
Exactly. Too much skeletons in their closets.
Indeed, and the opposition will exploit every slip-up.
Thailand’s future depends on solid governance, not political dynasties.
I honestly believe Thaksin’s influence could be a double-edged sword for Paetongtarn.
Will we ever have a government that can actually lead without drama?
One can hope, but the current scenario doesn’t look optimistic.
Do you think it’s better to keep hoping or to push for real change?
Real change requires effort and unity, which seems in short supply.
Gen Prawit’s role could be significant in the stability of the government.
A military coup is out of the question. It’s high time for political stability in Thailand.
No one wants another coup, but if things get out of control, who knows…
Let’s hope the government learns from its history and avoids pushing those boundaries.
Political fatigue is real. People just want their lives to be better.
Ethical governance is key. Without it, we’re just cycling through the same issues.
How about focusing on sustainable policies for once? The environment needs more attention.
The housekeeping for Ms. Paetongtarn’s administration must be impeccable to avoid past mistakes.
Agreed. Starting with better vetting of cabinet members.