Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra greeted a throng of eager reporters at the Pheu Thai Party headquarters in vibrant Bangkok on August 20. (Photo: Pattarapong Chatpatarasill)
According to former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, the government under Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is poised to navigate the political landscape and remain in power until the end of its three-year tenure. It seems none of the coalition parties are in any rush to trigger an early general election, busying themselves instead with efforts to convince voters of their credibility for future elections.
However, trouble might be brewing on the political horizon. Public confidence in Paetongtarn’s Pheu Thai Party-led government has been waning, a sentiment that could be further exacerbated by any potential misconduct, warned Mr. Abhisit. This could very well spiral into a full-fledged crisis.
When asked if history could repeat itself with Ms. Paetongtarn facing a military coup like her father Thaksin and aunt Yingluck, Mr. Abhisit noted that while her familial ties might not be enough to justify such a scenario, her leadership could be scrutinized. “Nobody wishes to witness another government downfall due to a coup,” he mentioned. “If this administration can ethically tackle the nation’s challenges, there’s no reason for discord.”
Despite his long-standing rivalry with the Pheu Thai Party, Mr. Abhisit confessed that he acknowledged their successes in the past. He expressed disappointment that these accomplishments were not leveraged as a springboard for the party’s advancement. “It’s a pity [Pheu Thai members] couldn’t build on their previous triumphs,” he lamented. “Even worse, the shadow of the Shinawatra influence is still pervasive.”
Mr. Abhisit observed that Thaksin’s influence could be a double-edged sword for the Pheu Thai-led government. On one hand, it might bolster the confidence of those who trust Thaksin’s vision and experience. On the other, it carries the peril of repeating past mistakes that blemished his career. “If Thaksin hasn’t learned from his prior missteps, the risk of history repeating itself is very real,” he cautioned.
Thawisan Lonanurak, an independent academic and former secretary-general of the Northeast Chamber of Commerce, highlighted some significant hurdles awaiting the country’s 31st prime minister. He pointed out that scrutinizing the 36 new cabinet ministers could take longer than anticipated. Any revelation of ineligibility among the new ministers might jeopardize the new PM’s standing.
Recalling the downfall of former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin due to a Constitutional Court ruling over an ethics violation involving the appointment of ex-convict Pichit Chuenban, Mr. Thawisan emphasized the need for vigilance from the Council of State and the Secretariat of the Cabinet. “This time, extra caution is imperative,” he stated.
The quality of the proposed cabinet ministers has not been particularly inspiring, according to Mr. Thawisan. Many are seemingly appointed due to party quotas rather than genuine suitability for their positions. “An academic as the agriculture minister and a policeman overseeing education—these choices are disheartening,” he critiqued.
He also commented on the political dynamics within the coalition, asserting that allowing dissenting factions to join against the party’s resolution undermines party integrity. This could lead to a future where more factions defy party resolutions seeking cabinet seats through backroom deals with MPs from other parties.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, remarked that the performance of the new government will be pivotal. It will determine not only the coalition’s ability to complete its term but also Pheu Thai’s chances in the next national election. “If the economic conditions don’t improve by year-end, the new government might face an early exit,” he predicted.
Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, the discontented leader of the Palang Pracharath Party that was cut from the new government, currently poses no immediate threat. However, Mr. Stithorn warned that failures in the Paetongtarn administration could open the door for Gen Prawit to potentially upend the current political equilibrium.
I don’t understand why everyone is so worried about another coup. Haven’t we had enough of that in the 21st century?
It’s not about wanting another coup, Liam. It’s about the instability and potential for history to repeat itself.
Exactly, Rose. Plus, the mere threat of a coup can destabilize the government’s agenda. It’s a vicious cycle.
A coup isn’t the solution, but can you really trust Paetongtarn’s government to solve our issues?
Fair point, Jake. But isn’t there a middle ground? Can’t we have political stability without the threat of military intervention?
Paetongtarn might be the PM, but it’s clear Thaksin still has his hands on the reins. Any thoughts on this?
Sophie, Thaksin’s shadow will always loom large. But is that necessarily a bad thing? He has experience at least.
Experience doesn’t count if you keep repeating the same mistakes, Tony. Thaksin’s era had its fair share of controversies.
This feels like déjà vu. We’ve seen the Shinawatra dynasty before, and we’re headed for the same cliff. Thoughts?
Exactly, Daniel. History is cyclical, especially in politics. I’d like to see Paetongtarn prove us wrong, though.
I’m optimistic. Every leader deserves a chance to chart their own course.
Let’s hope she learns from the past and avoids the pitfalls that snared her predecessors.
What about the new cabinet? Some of these appointments are laughable!
Elle, it’s all party politics. Quotas over qualifications. Can you believe an academic for agriculture minister and a policeman for education?
It’s absurd, Nate. These choices won’t inspire any confidence in the administration.
Clearly, they’re prioritizing party loyalty over competence. This is why we can’t catch a break.
I’m tired of all this political drama. Can we focus on real issues like education and healthcare for a change?
That’s the dream, Patricia. But these power plays overshadow everything.
Education and healthcare are precisely the areas where these incompetent ministers will mess things up!
You’re right, Lucas. We need experts in these critical roles, not political appointees.
I think it’s crucial to give this government time to prove itself. Let’s not jump the gun.
Public confidence is plummeting because of the Shinawatra legacy. How can they rebuild trust?
They need transparency and accountability in every move. But that’s easier said than done.
True, Martin. They must prioritize ethics over politics. Only then will people start to trust them again.
Can Thaksin just step aside for once? His involvement is a double-edged sword.
How long until we see cracks in this coalition? Can they really hold together for three years?
Cracks are inevitable, Oliver. It’s how they manage them that will determine their survival.
Agreed, Mia. Political coalitions are fragile, especially with so many dissenting factions.
Ethics? In Thai politics? That’s a joke. Too many power plays and backroom deals.
The nation needs a hero. Can Paetongtarn step up or will she crumble under pressure?
A three-year tenure seems optimistic. With the current economic issues, an early election might be on the horizon.
The whole system is broken. Fixing it requires more than just a change in leadership.
True, Julian. We need systemic overhaul, not just new faces.
Remember the Constitutional Court ruling that brought down Thavisin? Could history repeat with Paetongtarn?
Anita, if they aren’t more vigilant this time, anything’s possible.
These talks of early exits are damaging. Let’s give the government space to work.