The discussion revolved around “Anticipating Shifts in Thai Diplomatic Position under the Incoming Government,” at a forum attended by academia and policy makers. Issues such as the escalating competition between the United States and China, and the neutrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), particularly Myanmar’s situation, were highlighted as key challenges for Thai foreign policy. This event was hosted at Chulalongkorn University on a recent weekday, with the university’s Institute of Security and International Studies teaming up with the European Union’s delegation in Thailand.
Russ Jalichandra, a former Thai ambassador, and one of the event’s speakers, discussed Thailand’s changing foreign relations strategy. Since the 2014 military coup, Thailand has leaned inward, seeking partners that do not question its governance — particularly its approach towards democracy and human rights. He called for an immediate course correction, advocating for the restoration of balanced relationships with global powerhouses.
“What cannot be denied is China’s significance in all aspects of Thai life. However, an abrupt 180° lifestyle change is not feasible nor beneficial. We have to show willingness to dialogue more with the Western world,” suggested Russ.
With Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha steering the ship, Sino-Thai relationships have deepened over the span of the last nine years, stated Assoc Prof Sitthiphon Kruarattikan, of Thammasat University. This can be evidenced in the robust bilateral trades, the footfall of Chinese tourists in Thailand, and the frequency of exchanges between the leaders of both nations.
He also speculated that incoming Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin, would largely mirror Prayut’s policy towards China. He seemingly views China as an opportunity to exploit, rather than a threat. However, a pro-China Thailand could jeopardize its influence in ASEAN, warned Sitthiphon. This wavering stance could pose challenges during China-related discussions at ASEAN forums and risk painting Thailand into a corner.
Assoc Prof Jittipat Poonkham of Thammasat University shared similar sentiments. He reasoned that the perceived pivot towards China over the past nine years was a response to the ambiguity of US policy towards the region. The new administration, he believes, is unlikely to bring radical changes to Thailand’s diplomatic approach toward China.
The protracted crisis in Myanmar cannot be overlooked, according to Bhanubhatra Jittiang, a political scientist from Chulalongkorn University. He pointed to the resultant increase in narcotics, money laundering, and human trafficking, exacerbated by the shared border between Thailand and Myanmar, as evidence.
Sara Rezoagli, a senior representative of the European Union to Thailand, expressed eagerness to collaborate with the new Thai government. Aligning with the EU-Thailand Partnership and Cooperation Agreement signed in December 2022, she hopes this partnership will ensure more inclusive EU-Thai relations.
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