Thailand’s Coalition Crisis: The Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai Power Struggle of 2025

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The political landscape in Thailand is nothing short of a tantalizing drama, complete with unexpected twists and turns that could rival any soap opera. At the heart of this whirlwind is none other than the open sparring between the governing Pheu Thai Party and its chief coalition ally, Bhumjaithai. This simmering tension has sent observers into a tizzy, closely watching what seems to be an unravelling partnership fraught with disputes over policy, influence, and power.

Picture this: after more than two years of working together, Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai find themselves in a relationship crisis that has all the hallmarks of a celebrity breakup. It’s not just this season’s hiccups; these two have navigated choppy waters before. Remember the cannabis legalization brouhaha initiated by Bhumjaithai that Pheu Thai tried to curb without much success during Srettha Thavisin’s reign? Or how about the fiery debates regarding changes to the referendum law that saw Pheu Thai pushing for a single majority, while Bhumjaithai stuck stubbornly to the old double-majority rule? Most recently, the topic du jour is the controversial casino legalization bill championed by Pheu Thai — a move that has Bhumjaithai digging in its heels once again.

The stakes aren’t just high, they’re astronomical. Allegations of land encroachments by leaders from both parties serve as an arsenal of political grenades in what can only be described as a slugfest for dominance. No sooner do they try to put a positive spin on their love-hate relationship than pundits begin whispering about cracks that could bring down the coalition government before its four-year tenure wraps up.

Here’s where the plot thickens: The grand grapevine is abuzz with speculation that Bhumjaithai, with its stable of 70 MPs, might be edged out of the coalition. Enter Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who adamantly denies that the party will get the boot — for now, at least. Yet the shadow of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra looms large, with many accusing him of being the puppet master behind Pheu Thai.

Political savants envision a scenario where Bhumjaithai might be swapped out for the larger opposition People’s Party (PP), boasting 150 MPs. Were this daring gambit to play out, the coalition’s control would swell, enabling them even to expel the ultra-conservative United Thai Nation Party along with the Democrats. But don’t don your dancing shoes just yet; experts agree the PP is unlikely to be charmed by the idea of playing second fiddle, especially with a mere two years remaining until the next election.

The PP, in its unscathed political glory, hasn’t governed yet—a fresh canvas they hope will win them voter favor come election time, as disenchantment with political maneuverings runs high. Meanwhile, whispers have also intensified around the possibility of bringing the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) back into government. Once ousted at the twilight of Srettha’s administration, residual animosity remains potent among its ranks.

PPRP’s deputy leader Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn recently doubled down, emphatically dismissing any thoughts of reconciling with Pheu Thai. “A single cogitation of warming relations hasn’t crossed our contemplations,” he declared, critiquing the current administration’s approach to governance—particularly the polarizing casino initiative amidst ostensibly fragile political waters.

Now let’s whisk you away to another subplot teetering on the edge of political survival—the Thaksin saga. The Medical Council of Thailand’s recent verdict on Thaksin’s hospital detention has fanned the flames of more than individual destiny; it threatens the very bedrock of the Pheu Thai-led administration helmed by his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

The Supreme Court has sprung into action, compelling inquiries into Thaksin’s seemingly cushy hospital stint. The MCT followed up with disciplinary measures against three medics implicated in his prolonged stay, igniting rumors that the former prime minister might face the clang of prison bars—a move with seismic repercussions for the current government.

Critics, dubbing Ms. Paetongtarn as a mere extension of her father’s titanic influence, propose that any incarceration of Thaksin could lead to a governmental nosedive. If faced with such a scenario, coupled with disgruntled whispers about diverted funds for digital schemes, Thaksin may very well choose the exile route once more, imperiling hopes of his sister Yingluck’s reputed return to Thai soil.

Though Thaksin’s fateful affair remains cloudy, the ramifications extend across Thai politics, suggesting this is a crisis not just of venues or laws but of democratic identity and trust itself. As the nation holds its collective breath, many wonder if a political recalibration—or even a coup—is waiting in the wings. It’s a combustible scene set for more political pyrotechnics, where the grand finale remains tantalizingly unwritten.