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Thaksin Shinawatra’s Return: The Hidden Hand Steering Thai Politics Forward

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It’s often whispered in the corridors of power: major political parties can’t escape being manipulated, but the strings aren’t pulled by their registered leaders. Enter the shadow figures—chaperones, puppet masters, the power behind the throne—who pull the levers and turn the knobs that steer the political machinery.

A source in the know tipped me off that Thai politics has long been entangled with these “de facto leaders” who find it excruciatingly hard to let go of their control. Over the years, key political parties have often been under the thumb of larger-than-life personalities, wielding significant sway over policy decisions and party direction. Fast-forward to today, and the likes of Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties find themselves in a similar scenario.

These giants control nearly half the representatives in Thailand’s House. The manipulative politics have some calling it a “manipulative democracy,” deeply embedded in the country’s political ethos. And guess what? August 22 might change the game completely. Why? Because the former premier, Thaksin Shinawatra, will be roaming freely, having served his sentences through a mix of hospitalization and parole.

Thaksin’s critics are having a field day, claiming he dodged serious jail time. But for Pheu Thai, where his youngest daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is at the helm, he’s practically a saint. Everyone knows Thaksin’s covert missions to rally support for the party. Post-prison, speculation is rife: Thaksin might just become Pheu Thai’s top adviser, exerting monumental influence over party policies, no longer crippled by restrictions.

Ah, the blurry lines of politics and family drama! Thaksin, who founded the now-dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party, has been a political force majeure. His plans were given wings through his brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat’s stint as prime minister and further cemented by mobilizing red-shirt supporters to power. It’s widely thought he dreams of replicating that success with Paetongtarn, seizing the opportunity while Srettha Thavisin awaits a crucial court decision that could lead to his ouster.

Of course, Paetongtarn isn’t the sole contender within Pheu Thai—there’s Chaikasem Nitisiri, though his health issues make him a less favorable choice. Thaksin’s full return to the political stage has everyone waiting to see how he’ll steer Pheu Thai to outmaneuver the rising threat from Bhumjaithai, allegedly backed by 150 out of 200 senators.

Speaking of Bhumjaithai, it’s led by Anutin Charnvirakul, but there’s another under-the-radar player: Newin Chidchob, the party’s co-founder. He’s stepped back (or so he claims) to foster Buriram United into a football titan. Yet, the sources suggest Newin never really left the political playground. This veteran politician still whispers strategic advice to Anutin, navigating the maze of political opposition.

Unlike Thaksin, who often overshadows his daughter, Newin operates from the shadows, giving Anutin the freedom to act as the face of the party. Thaksin’s very public persona contrasts sharply with Anutin’s apparent autonomy.

Meanwhile, the dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP) hasn’t thrown in the towel. Stripped of its official status, 143 MPs have reconstituted themselves as the People’s Party (PP), headed by 37-year-old Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut. Ambitious and driven, the PP aims to grab enough seats in the upcoming 2027 general election to form a single-party government capable of spearheading transformative changes. Their immediate challenge? The by-election in Phitsanulok province’s Constituency 1, scheduled for September 15.

The vacant seat left by former MP Padipat Suntiphada is up for grabs, and the PP has their eyes on the prize. In the last general election, Padipat secured the spot under the MFP banner and was the first Deputy House Speaker. After his expulsion, he joined the Fair Party to retain his deputy speaker role, a strategic move to position the MFP leader as the opposition leader.

Skeptics are keeping an eye on PP’s ability to win local elections, particularly given the stronghold long-established political families have. Known as “Ban Yai,” these families dominate local politics, making it tough for any new party to break through. The recent Provincial Administration Organization (PAO) elections in Ayutthaya, Chai Nat, and Phayao saw victories for candidates affiliated with major government parties, leaving the newly formed PP to battle uphill.

Despite these hurdles, PP remains undeterred. Their candidate in Ratchaburi’s PAO elections, Chairat Sakisarapong, is poised to disrupt the status quo. According to political science lecturer Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, the outcome of the elections in Ratchaburi and Phitsanulok will be telling indicators of PP’s influence and popularity.

Unwavering in their mission, the PP continues to champion the amendment of Section 112, known as the lese majeste law, despite the Constitutional Court’s dissolution order. Could this tenacity spell success for the People’s Party? Only time will tell.

In the words of Natthaphong, “From now on, we have to tread carefully. We have to study the Constitutional Court’s ruling as well as legalities regarding amending Section 112 to avoid being dissolved again.” The political landscape in Thailand is nothing short of a high-stakes chess game, and the next few moves will be crucial.

37 Comments

  1. John Doe August 17, 2024

    Thaksin’s return is going to destabilize Thai politics even further. How can anyone trust a system where ex-premiers are released from prison just to start meddling again?

    • Mai Ling August 17, 2024

      It’s not destabilizing; it’s bringing a seasoned politician back into the mix. Thai politics needs strong figures to navigate the chaos.

      • David Nguyen August 17, 2024

        Strong? Maybe, but Thaksin’s past isn’t exactly spotless. Corruption charges, anyone?

    • Sally M. August 17, 2024

      Honestly, I’m more concerned about the puppet masters mentioned. Thaksin is just the tip of the iceberg.

      • John Doe August 17, 2024

        Exactly! The de facto leaders pulling strings are a bigger problem. Democracy only in name.

      • Paul Ratner August 17, 2024

        I think you’re all missing the point. The real issue is how easily these shadow figures manipulate party policies.

  2. Lisa Chan August 17, 2024

    Pheu Thai needs Thaksin. Without him, they’re just another party with no clear direction.

    • Ethan August 17, 2024

      That’s the problem! Parties shouldn’t rely so heavily on one person. What happens when he’s gone for good?

      • Lisa Chan August 17, 2024

        True, but look at Bhumjaithai. Newin Chidchob isn’t officially involved and yet has significant influence. It’s a flawed system throughout.

  3. grower134 August 17, 2024

    The manipulation is blatant. Thailand’s politics are a mess, and it shows no signs of changing.

    • Janet P. August 17, 2024

      Sad but true. Imagine how different things would be if leaders were actually elected based on merit.

      • grower134 August 17, 2024

        One can dream! Until major reforms are made, it’s going to be the same old story.

  4. Sammy T. August 17, 2024

    PP’s ambitions are laughable. Do they really think they can unseat entrenched political families?

    • Nattaya August 17, 2024

      Don’t underestimate them. Movements like these can gather momentum quickly.

    • Vince Y. August 17, 2024

      Exactly, look at how they’re fighting despite being dissolved. That kind of tenacity can lead to major shifts.

    • Sammy T. August 17, 2024

      I remain skeptical, but I guess we’ll see in the next elections.

  5. Larry D. August 17, 2024

    I’m curious about Natthaphong’s vision. Is he really in it for change, or is it just another power grab?

    • Claire W. August 17, 2024

      He seems genuine, but in politics, you never really know.

  6. Suzie Q. August 17, 2024

    It’s impressive how Thaksin has stayed relevant all these years. Like him or not, he’s a master strategist.

  7. Bhumi C. August 17, 2024

    Anutin and Newin’s dynamic is interesting. One is the face, the other the brain. It’s a smart strategy in today’s political climate.

    • Leo S. August 17, 2024

      Agreed. That’s probably why Bhumjaithai is so effective. They play to their strengths.

  8. Fatima Abdullah August 17, 2024

    The game really changes on August 22. Thaksin’s parole might set a precedent for other political figures.

  9. AI_Explorer August 17, 2024

    Thaksin may try to come back officially, but will the public accept him after all the controversies?

    • Ornrapee August 17, 2024

      Public opinion is fickle. He’s got a loyal base, and sometimes that’s enough.

  10. Monica August 17, 2024

    The manipulation in Thai politics isn’t unique. It’s a global issue. Look at the US, for example.

  11. Steven J. August 17, 2024

    We need political education for the masses. Until the general populace understands what’s happening, we’re stuck in a loop.

    • Alex T. August 17, 2024

      Easier said than done. Political awareness takes time and effort, and most people are too preoccupied with day-to-day survival.

  12. Chaiwat August 17, 2024

    Section 112 remains a hot topic. PP’s stance could make or break their future.

    • Arthit August 17, 2024

      It’s a risk, but high risk can lead to high reward. They might just pull it off.

    • Chaiwat August 17, 2024

      Could be, but it might alienate some supporters. It’s a double-edged sword.

  13. Tanya P. August 17, 2024

    Why isn’t there a bigger outcry over the so-called ‘puppet masters’? This should be the real scandal!

    • Jackson H. August 17, 2024

      That’s because it’s been normalized. People have become desensitized to political manipulation.

  14. Pat K. August 17, 2024

    This article paints a bleak picture. Is there any hope for honest governance?

    • Teresa August 17, 2024

      Hope always exists. It’s just a matter of pushing through the grime to find it.

  15. James Robinson August 17, 2024

    The PP’s ambition is commendable. But ambition without strategy is futile.

  16. George M. August 17, 2024

    Thailand’s political scene is a never-ending drama. What’s next, a royal intervention?

    • Narong August 17, 2024

      Let’s hope not. The last thing we need is more instability.

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