Paroled ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra recently made waves with his visit to Surin—a province in the lower northeastern region. The buzz began when he arrived at Wat Suwan Wichit in Prasat district on July 14 to oversee the ordination of 334 novice monks, celebrating the sixth cycle birthday anniversary of His Majesty the King. Though the visit was primarily religious, it’s hard to ignore the political undercurrents swirling around it.
Last year’s polls jolted Surin’s political landscape. Once a stronghold of the Pheu Thai Party, which bagged five out of the seven seats in the 2019 elections, the region shifted allegiance. Bhumjaithai Party surged ahead, capturing five out of eight seats as Pheu Thai’s share dwindled to three. Thaksin’s visit, thus, has stoked speculation that the former bastion is becoming a central arena for the next general election.
Following his parole six months ago, Thaksin has been on a provincial tour, including a stop in his home province, Chiang Mai, where Pheu Thai suffered a crushing defeat to the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP). Analysts suggest his trek to Surin is a calculated move to regain local support, given his unofficial role as the helmsman of Pheu Thai.
Political Science lecturer Olarn Thinbangtieo from Burapha University opines that Thaksin needs to rebuild bonds with influential political families to rejuvenate Pheu Thai’s fortunes. Since his return in August, his once unblemished image as “Tony”—a visionary leader—has taken a hit. Not a day spent in jail and seen as the puppet master behind the scenes, his reputation has suffered.
Current Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s popularity has also waned since the government formation, which extends to Pheu Thai’s leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter. As party stalwarts like Phumtham Wechayachai, Dr. Prommin Lertsuridej, and Dr. Cholnan Srikaew struggle for relevance, Thaksin is compelled to step back into the limelight to reestablish vital connections.
However, it’s not a walk in the park. Olarn adds that Thaksin’s top-down approach of treating allies as employees, unlike Bhumjaithai’s partnership model, makes potential alliances precarious. Should Thaksin fail to secure high-profile, credentialed figures for the party list, Pheu Thai’s chances in party-list seats look bleak. Moreover, delays in the party’s flagship digital wallet scheme have dented its credibility, potentially affecting election prospects.
Ubon Ratchathani University’s Prathueng Muang-on highlights that Pheu Thai faces a two-front battle: the constituency system against Bhumjaithai and the rising popularity of the MFP. Though Bhumjaithai is expected to garner more seats under the constituency system, MFP’s popularity in party-list votes is also ascending. The ruling party’s struggles are evident; its sharp decline in popularity wasn’t sudden but a gradual erosion, partly due to lagging resources and a lack of showcase achievements after a long ruling absence.
Pheu Thai’s urban stronghold is shrinking, and the once core support group, the red shirts, are weakening. Prathueng’s analysis suggests Bhumjaithai’s footprint will expand as Pheu Thai contracts. Thaksin and his daughter’s recent visit saw a conspicuously small welcoming crowd, underlining the challenge ahead.
Despite the trials, Pheu Thai MP Krumanit Sangphum insists Thaksin’s active role will bolster local support. Revered within the party, Thaksin is seen as a transformative figure. By combining his vision with young politicians like his daughter, Paetongtarn, Krumanit believes Pheu Thai can regain seats in the lower northeast, although Buri Ram—Bhumjaithai’s fortress—remains out of reach.
For Bhumjaithai, Thaksin’s visit is no cause for concern, assures Sanong Thep-aksonnarong, a Bhumjaithai MP for Buri Ram. He shrugged off Thaksin’s presence and suggested he gauge public sentiment in Chiang Mai instead. The red shirt movement, loosely connected now, is not seen as a significant threat to Bhumjaithai’s robust grassroots connections.
Interestingly, during his Surin visit, Thaksin hinted at taking on more roles for public benefit post-august—after completing his jail term. Whether as an advisor or a special representative in specific, temporary tasks, his future involvement remains a topic of quiet speculation.
In sum, Thaksin’s Surin visit, though religious, has rekindled the political theater in Thailand’s lower northeast. As Bhumjaithai gains ground and the MFP’s popularity rises, Pheu Thai faces an arduous battle, one that calls for both strategic maneuvering and charismatic leadership. Thaksin may very well be the key to turning the tide, but only time will tell.
Thaksin’s visit is nothing but a desperate attempt to stay relevant. His influence has been waning for years.
I don’t think it’s just about relevance. Pheu Thai is in dire straits, and they need Thaksin’s charisma to pull through.
Charisma or not, he’s a convicted criminal. Why would anyone trust him?
Exactly, Joe! His track record speaks volumes. Pheu Thai should look for a new leader who isn’t tainted by controversy.
Desperate or not, Thaksin’s moves always shake things up. He knows how to play the political game.
Thaksin showing up in Surin is a clear message to Bhumjaithai that Pheu Thai isn’t going down without a fight.
Bhumjaithai shouldn’t underestimate Thaksin. He has a way of rallying support even when things look bleak.
Well, Bhumjaithai has the grassroots support that Pheu Thai lacks. Thaksin’s tricks won’t work this time.
Pheu Thai may lack in grassroots, but they have urban influence. It’s a battle of different strengths.
This visit is just a facade. Thaksin is trying to manipulate public opinion again.
Manipulation or strategy, it’s effective. That’s politics for you.
Let’s not forget he hasn’t even served his full sentence. How can someone with such a background be trusted?
Exactly, BrightFuture! His parole is a joke, and this tour is his way of sidestepping justice.
Thaksin’s leadership is unparalleled. This visit is a masterstroke to boost Pheu Thai’s chances.
I’m not so sure about that. His past scandals could backfire and harm the party further.
But scandals haven’t stopped Thaksin before, have they? He has a unique way of rebounding.
The visit has religious overtones, but let’s be real—it’s all about the votes.
I didn’t see a huge crowd welcoming him. Seems like his charm is wearing off.
Buri Ram is Bhumjaithai’s stronghold. Thaksin’s visit to Surin won’t change much there.
True, but it might be enough to regain some lost ground in other provinces.
Perhaps, but he needs more than a few speeches to win back trust.
Thaksin should focus on fixing internal issues within Pheu Thai rather than these public stunts.
Fascinating how Thaksin uses soft power through religious ceremonies. A classic yet risky maneuver.
The delay in Pheu Thai’s digital wallet scheme has really hurt them. No wonder Thaksin is stepping in.
Can we talk about how the MFP is quietly gaining momentum amidst all this?
The MFP is the real threat here. Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai are old news.
Whatever Thaksin’s motives, his actions always make headlines. That’s not something you can ignore.
Pheu Thai should include more young blood like Paetongtarn. The old guard can’t carry the load alone.
Exactly! Paetongtarn represents a new vision, and they should leverage that.
Young leadership combined with Thaksin’s experience could be a winning formula.
I’m skeptical about Thaksin’s promise to contribute more post-august. Sounds like more empty promises.
Thaksin’s visit is a sign that Pheu Thai is in crisis mode. They wouldn’t bring him out otherwise.
The red shirt movement isn’t what it used to be. Pheu Thai is losing its core support base.
Bhumjaithai is laughing this off, but Surin might be a wake-up call for them.
They’ve been dominating for years. One visit from Thaksin won’t change that.
Never underestimate Thaksin. His presence can influence voters more than you think.