Thaksin Shinawatra appeared before reporters accompanied by his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, right beside him, at his residence on his birthday, July 24. (Photo supplied) The decision to nominate Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn as Thailand’s new prime minister reveals Thaksin’s resolve to reestablish their support base and fend off the People’s Party (PP), according to a seasoned political analyst. Though known for her limited political experience, Ms. Paetongtarn, 37, secured an overwhelming endorsement from the House of Representatives on Friday, stepping in to succeed Srettha Thavisin, who was recently ousted by the Constitutional Court.
After forming an alliance with conservative factions last year, Pheu Thai now emerges as what some consider the new conservative power, poised to challenge the PP—a new incarnation of the progressive Move Forward Party dissolved on August 7.
Stithorn Thananithichot, Director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, interprets Ms. Paetongtarn’s ascension as a signal that the conservative camp is persisting in its strategy to counter the main opposition, but this time without the facade of a proxy. Reports surfaced earlier of key coalition figures gathering at Thaksin’s Ban Chan Song La residence in Bangkok on Wednesday evening, where they initially agreed on Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former justice minister and attorney-general, for the top post. However, by Thursday, Pheu Thai’s executive board threw their support behind Ms. Paetongtarn.
Mr. Stithorn notes that this maneuver represents Pheu Thai’s final opportunity to rally voter support and recoup lost ground. Should the strategy fail, the party’s credibility in the political arena might be irrecoverable, necessitating an entirely new approach. “This strategy has to succeed. The government must proceed with utmost caution, especially when navigating potential legal pitfalls. It would be prudent not to antagonize the conservative camp,” he stressed.
With local elections impending, the political atmosphere is expected to be highly charged. Parties will exploit this chance to fortify their bases in preparation for the next general election, Mr. Stithorn elaborated. Ms. Paetongtarn now steps into a legacy, becoming the third Shinawatra family member to hold the premier position after her father Thaksin and aunt Yingluck. Thaksin’s brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, also briefly held the role in 2008.
“They must counteract the PP’s growing popularity and maintain the support of Ban Yai, or influential political families. The local elections promise a fierce competition between Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai Party, and the PP, assuring us of intense political maneuvering,” Mr. Stithorn concluded.
According to a source in the Chartthaipattana Party, Ms. Paetongtarn is seen as a “safe” bet in the current climate, where the opposition appears weakened and in flux. Additionally, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is investigating the actions of 44 former MPs from the now-defunct MFP who supported revising Section 112 of the Criminal Code, known as the lese majeste law.
The source stated that upon identifying a vulnerable opposition, making the optimal leadership choice becomes imperative. With Ms. Paetongtarn at the helm, her principal advisor is none other than Thaksin himself, calling for innovative approaches. Pushing her into the prime minister’s role signals a high-stakes showdown with the People’s Party, the source hinted.
Meanwhile, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul is unlikely to assume the mantle of conservative leadership at this juncture. Pheu Thai list MP Adisorn Piengkes highlighted that both the government and opposition must reassess strategies following political setbacks, referring to recent court decisions that dissolved the MFP and removed Mr. Srettha.
Mr. Adisorn expressed confidence in the leader’s resilience, believing she can weather political turmoils with her father’s and party’s guidance. He emphasized that nominating Ms. Paetongtarn wasn’t an act of hostility towards the PP but rather a commitment to campaign promises. He anticipates she will bolster the party’s appeal.
Concerning the party’s digital wallet policy, he mentioned that the new administration would deliberate it, hoping it would mirror the significance of the universal healthcare program.
On a positive note, the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) welcomed the prompt nomination of Ms. Paetongtarn, seeing it as a potential confidence booster for the country. Sanan Angubolkul, the TCC chairman, stated that effective leadership transcends age, emphasizing the importance of resources to execute policies. The TCC also called for a more collaborative governance approach to ensure stability and unity, suggesting key areas for the government to focus on in the short term.
Foremost, the government must stabilize the Thai baht to support exports and fuel the tourism sector’s growth. Achieving the target of 36–37 million tourist arrivals is crucial, necessitating the introduction of new attractions, enhancing safety, and promoting investments in pilot provinces. Additionally, the government should seek new markets to expand exports, expedite fiscal disbursements for 2024, implement measures to alleviate economic hardship, and shield domestic producers from cheap foreign goods influxes.
Mr. Sanan urged continuation and refinement of the preceding government’s trade and investment promotion policies, advocating for a dedicated ministry to oversee them. He remarked on the need to advance a “soft power” agenda, add value to the economy, and elevate labor skills for digital technology opportunities, while addressing high energy costs and outdated investment laws.
Thailand’s GDP growth, pegged at a modest 2%, underperforms its potential. To remedy this, Mr. Sanan advocated for medium- and long-term strategies aiming for a 3-5% growth rate to drive the nation forward.
Putting Paetongtarn Shinawatra in charge is a huge gamble. She has almost no political experience!
Inexperienced, maybe. But let’s not forget she has her father Thaksin advising her. That’s a game changer.
Thaksin may be a game changer, but his history of corruption can’t be ignored. Is that really what Thailand needs right now?
Exactly! Thaksin’s past should be a red flag. Paetongtarn better prove she isn’t just his puppet.
The lack of experience might be her downfall. She’d better have a solid team behind her.
Interesting move by Pheu Thai. Aligning with conservative factions is a clever strategy to regain lost ground.
Clever? Seems more like a betrayal of their progressive values to me.
Betrayal or not, it’s politics. You have to do what it takes to win.
I doubt Paetongtarn will last long. The opposition will tear her apart.
Don’t underestimate her. Underestimating opponents has cost many politicians dearly.
True, but with everything stacked against her, it’s hard to see her succeeding.
I hope Paetongtarn can bring some positive changes. Thailand’s political scene desperately needs fresh air.
Thaksin’s return in any form is not good for Thailand. The country needs to move forward, not backwards.
Aligning with the conservative camp is a master stroke. It shows adaptability in politics.
Or desperation. They’re just trying to stay relevant.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. Politics is all about survival.
The digital wallet policy sounds promising. Let’s see if it materializes.
Promising on paper, maybe. But Pheu Thai has a history of making big promises they can’t keep.
Fair point. We’ll know soon enough if it’s just another empty promise.
I think Paetongtarn can bring a new perspective. Sometimes new blood is exactly what’s needed.
New perspective or not, experience matters. Let’s see if she can handle the pressure.
Yes, she’ll need all the support she can get to navigate through the challenges.
Focusing on the economy, especially tourism, is smart. It’s one of Thailand’s biggest revenue sources.
The NACC investigation could spell trouble for the opposition. This might give Paetongtarn a fighting chance.
Or it could just cause more instability. The last thing Thailand needs is more political drama.
Stability is a challenge, but dealing with corruption is crucial to moving forward.
Paetongtarn’s appointment could rejuvenate the party. The young leader image can attract more voters.
The upcoming local elections will be a real test. If she can survive that, she might have a chance.
Agreed. Local elections often serve as a bellwether for national sentiment.
Exactly. Winning locally could give her the momentum needed for the general election.
Paetongtarn becoming PM feels like déjà vu. The Shinawatra legacy continues, for better or worse.
For worse, definitely. We need new, genuine leadership, not the same old family legacy.
Point taken, but sometimes familiarity provides a sense of stability amidst chaos.
I just hope she doesn’t become a puppet with Thaksin pulling the strings from behind the scenes.
Her leadership will depend heavily on strategic decisions. Handling the economy and addressing legal pitfalls will be key.
Aligning with Ban Yai is crucial. Without influential political families, her support base is shaky.
What’s the point of new leadership if it’s still the same old politics? Thailand needs real change.
The push for tourism and economic stability is a step in the right direction. Let’s give her a chance.
Can Paetongtarn navigate the complexities of Thai politics? The opposition is fierce and she’s got a lot to prove.
Good question. It’s a sink or swim situation for her.
Yeah, and the sharks are already circling.