This year’s floods are likely to be far less catastrophic than the infamous ones that drenched the country in 2011, thanks to a smaller mass of water coming from the North and the nation’s improved disaster readiness, according to water expert Chawalit Chantararat. Chawalit, director of Team Consulting Engineering and Management Public Company Limited (Team Group), voiced his optimism in a recent interview with the Bangkok Post, explaining that this year’s rainfall should be manageable.
Despite heavy rain drenching northern provinces like Chiang Rai, Phayao, Phrae, Sukhothai, and Phichit, Chawalit stressed that it hasn’t been sufficient to submerge the entire region. Offering some comparative numbers, he pointed out that the amount of water currently flowing past Muang district in Nakhon Sawan province stands at 15.6 billion cubic meters. This is significantly lower than the record 23.4 billion cubic meters measured on Sept 25, 2011.
Chawalit explained that the enormous water volumes seen in 2011 were due to the convergence of four main rivers—the Ping, Wang, Yom, and Nan Rivers—which meet at Nakhon Sawan to feed the Chao Phraya River. This year, only the Yom River is bringing excessive water from the North. “On August 25, the water flow through Nakhon Sawan was about 40% of what it was in 2011, which is entirely manageable,” he noted with confidence.
Asked whether Bangkok would see a repeat of the devastating 2011 floods, Chawalit, also a seasoned water resources engineer, assured that based on current flow volumes, the city should be safe. “Bangkok is where the water ultimately exits to the sea, and the northern water mass isn’t extensive enough to pose a serious threat,” he explained. He also placed his faith in the ‘kaem ling’ or “monkey cheek” water catchment areas along the Chao Phraya River in provinces north of Bangkok, such as Ayutthaya, Lop Buri, and Ang Thong. These reservoirs can collectively hold about 1.2 billion cubic meters of water, effectively preventing northern water from invading Bangkok.
However, Chawalit did highlight that Bangkok often struggles to drain rainwater following heavy downpours, particularly in areas with basin land characteristics. These include 12 high-risk zones like Chaeng Watthana Road (from the Prapa Canal to the Prem Prachakon Canal), Ratchadaphisek Road (in front of Bangkok Bank), and Sathu Pradit Road (at the Sathu-Chan junction). He elaborated that releasing rainwater into the Chao Phraya River becomes especially challenging in October when sea levels are typically high. This can lead to floods in regions outside the flood-prevention zone, including the Soi Si Kham community in Samsen Soi 19, the Devaraj Kunchon community, and the Rachaphatubtim Ruam Jai community in Dusit district. Other susceptible areas include Phra Nakhon district’s Tha Wang and Tha Tian areas, as well as Yannawa district’s Rong Si community on Rama III Road.
Chawalit also touched on the long-term impact of global warming, identifying it as a crucial factor contributing to increased rainfall. “In 2022, Bangkok saw an excessive 800 millimeters of rainfall in just one month, compared to the yearly average of 2,300 millimeters,” he pointed out. “Global warming is becoming more immediate and personal. The Earth’s temperature should not exceed a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase, but we’ve already hit a 1.2 degrees Celsius rise. An increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius could unleash more catastrophes like wildfires, floods, melting polar ice, and seawater overflows into rivers,” he warned.
Looking ahead, Chawalit cited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s prediction that sea levels in the Gulf of Thailand will rise by a daunting 75 centimeters in the next 26 years. “By then, Bangkok could very well be submerged,” lamented the water expert, urging continued diligence in climate and flood management efforts.
I think Chawalit is being overly optimistic. Bangkok’s infrastructure is terrible for dealing with heavy rain, and predicting ‘manageable’ floods seems naive.
Joe, you might be right, but let’s not forget that we’ve come a long way since 2011. The ‘kaem ling’ reservoirs have been a game-changer.
Sure, improvements matter, but climate change is a much bigger issue. Those reservoirs won’t help if the sea levels rise as predicted.
Exactly, Joe. Infrastructure can’t keep up if we don’t tackle the root causes of climate change.
I agree with Joe. The 2022 rainfall numbers Chawalit mentioned are shocking. If we had another month like that, those reservoirs would overflow.
I appreciate Chawalit’s cautious optimism. It’s better to be prepared for the worst but hope for the best.
I agree with you, Sita. Panic never helps, and we must focus on improving our preparedness without sowing fear.
Exactly, Sita. The media loves to sensationalize these reports, but we need balanced perspectives like Chawalit’s.
While I understand the need for optimism, it should not come at the cost of downplaying serious risks.
The rising sea levels are the most worrying part of this. In 26 years, Bangkok could be underwater. We need long-term solutions, not just temporary fixes.
James, I totally agree. The idea that Bangkok could be submerged by 2050 is terrifying. We’re not doing enough about it.
But what can we realistically do? Even if we address carbon emissions now, sea levels are still going to rise.
Bhumibol, good point. But we need comprehensive planning and perhaps even considering relocating vulnerable communities.
Honestly, it’s amazing how people only care about Bangkok. What about the rural communities up north? They face floods every year and get way less attention.
Exactly! Flood management shouldn’t be just about big cities. Rural areas are hit just as hard, if not harder.
It’s true. The government and media need to spread their focus. Lives are at stake everywhere, not just in Bangkok.
Why are we talking about 26 years from now? What about immediate solutions? We can’t just wait for sea levels to rise.
I think Chawalit’s faith in the ‘kaem ling’ areas is well-placed. Prevention and quick action are key.
Absolutely, Anita. But it’s also crucial that the city improves its drainage systems to handle sudden downpours.
I don’t trust these predictions. In 2011 they said everything would be fine and look what happened.
Honestly, I’m more worried about global warming. Bangkok’s future really hinges on global efforts, not just local measures.
Larry, you’re right. Local efforts can only do so much when we’re looking at a global problem.
The ‘monkey cheek’ reservoirs are a joke. They won’t save us from the real problem of rising sea levels and increased rainfall.
Sofia, I think you’re underestimating their capacity. They do help control water to some extent.
Even if they help now, what about ten years from now? They are a short-term fix, nothing more.
It’s really disheartening that despite the advancements, we’re still so vulnerable to floods. We need international cooperation on climate change now more than ever.
I think everyone is missing the point. Improved preparedness is based on data and expertise. Chawalit knows what he’s talking about.
While expertise is vital, real-world conditions often throw a wrench into even the best predictions. Remember 2011.
I’m concerned that businesses will ignore these warnings because the short-term economic impact is too great. Long-term planning is hard to sell.
True, Nok. Economic interests often overshadow environmental concerns.
It’s not just about data and predictions. Public awareness and community preparedness are equally crucial. People need to be educated.