The political landscape is gearing up for a seismic shift next month as the Constitutional Court gears up to deliver pivotal rulings on two high-stakes cases. These rulings will be decisive for the main opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) and the current Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin. According to former red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan, “The chances of the MFP surviving the dissolution case are slim.” Should Prime Minister Srettha be ousted, it could send shockwaves through the ruling Pheu Thai Party.
Despite the turbulence, Pheu Thai has backup plans in place for potential successors. Party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra and core member Chaikasem Nitisiri are poised to step up, according to political analysts.
In response to the case against him, Prime Minister Srettha remains optimistic. “I’m focusing on my duties and my morale is high,” he commented. “Differences in opinion are part of politics. Any issues that arise will be resolved.” The Prime Minister is confident that the coalition will stay united through these challenging times.
Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has downplayed speculation that he could replace Mr. Srettha should he be removed from office. “Every cabinet minister stands by the Prime Minister, offering moral support. We hope he navigates these tough times successfully,” said Anutin, who also leads the Bhumjaithai Party and was a PM candidate in the last election.
The controversy surrounding Prime Minister Srettha erupted in May, when a group of 40 caretaker senators petitioned the Constitutional Court to remove him. They alleged that he had violated the constitution by appointing Pichit Chuenban, an ex-convict and ally of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as his PM’s Office Minister during a cabinet reshuffle.
The senators argued that Pichit was unfit for a cabinet post due to his previous jail time for contempt of court in 2008, when he and two colleagues were caught trying to bribe Supreme Court officials with a bag containing 2 million baht. Pichit had represented Thaksin in a controversial land case at the time. However, Pichit resigned from his ministerial post just before the court accepted the petition against Prime Minister Srettha, apparently to spare him from legal complications. The court agreed to hear the case against the Prime Minister but dismissed the case against Pichit since he had already stepped down.
All eyes are now on August 14, when the court will rule on Prime Minister Srettha’s case.
The MFP is also in hot water, facing a dissolution case filed by the Election Commission (EC) in March. This follows the Constitutional Court’s January 31 ruling that MFP’s efforts to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code implied intentions to undermine Thailand’s constitutional monarchy. The EC claims that based on this ruling, the MFP violated Section 92 of the organic law on political parties, which empowers the court to dissolve any party that poses a threat to the monarchy. The commission has asked the court not only to disband the MFP but also to ban its executives from participating in future elections or serving as executives in a new party for the next decade.
The Constitutional Court will deliver its verdict on the dissolution case against the MFP on August 7. MFP leader Chaithawat Tulathon has stated that the party is prepared to accept the court’s decision, whether favorable or not. “We have grown stronger, and our members are more prepared than ever. We will triumph in the next general election,” he declared.
Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is set to complete his one-year jail sentence on August 22, attracting significant public attention. It remains to be seen whether he will assume a role in Pheu Thai to help the party regain its dwindling popularity. Thaksin, now 74, returned to Thailand on August 22 last year after 15 years of self-imposed exile. On the same day, the Supreme Court ordered his imprisonment for eight years over three cases. However, due to health reasons, Thaksin was sent from Bangkok Remand Prison to the Police General Hospital that night.
His jail term was later commuted to one year by a royal pardon. After spending six months in the hospital, Thaksin was paroled and discharged in February. With these key developments, the political temperature is set to rise dramatically, promising a month filled with suspense and significant implications for Thailand’s political future.
The ruling against the Move Forward Party will set a dangerous precedent for future political parties. This is a blatant attempt to stifle political dissent!
Come on, Sarah. If the party really violated laws, they should face the consequences. We need to protect our constitutional monarchy.
I agree with Sarah. This isn’t just about laws; it’s about manipulating the system to silence opposition voices.
Exactly, Max. These verdicts are more about political power plays than justice. It’s about shaping the landscape in favor of certain parties.
Prime Minister Srettha seems overly optimistic. With so many forces against him, it’s almost naive to think he’ll easily come out unscathed.
Nina, optimism is important in politics. He needs to project strength to keep his coalition intact.
But Bob, there’s a difference between optimism and ignoring reality. The allegations against him are serious.
I get it, Kathy. But politics is as much about public perception as it is about reality. He has to stay positive.
Does anyone really believe the Pheu Thai Party’s backup plans will go smoothly? This feels like wishful thinking.
Andrew, they have experienced politicians like Paetongtarn Shinawatra ready. They’re not amateurs.
Paetongtarn is a Shinawatra, but she still lacks the same political clout as Thaksin or Yingluck. Big shoes to fill.
Thaksin’s health issues seem too convenient. Does anyone else think it’s part of a strategy to keep him out of jail?
Deputy PM Anutin downplaying his potential ascendancy is just politics. He’s likely biding his time, waiting for the right moment to strike.
Absolutely, Peter. Anutin is playing his cards close to his chest. He’s ambitious and this is just a show of false modesty.
It’s disheartening to see the MFP facing dissolution. We desperately need fresh perspectives in Thai politics.
The appointment of Pichit was a blunder. How did Srettha think he could get away with appointing someone with such a controversial past?
Agree, Arun. It was a reckless move that’s now backfiring spectacularly.
You both are right. Srettha should have anticipated the backlash. It’s politics 101.
Former red-shirt leader Jatuporn’s comment about MFP’s slim chances isn’t surprising, but it’s still concerning.
If MFP gets dissolved, it will only strengthen them in the long run. Suppression usually gives rise to more defiance.
That’s an interesting point, Sandy. Historically, suppressed movements do gather more momentum eventually.
Thanks, James. People rally around ideas more strongly when they feel they’re being unjustly silenced.
Why does Thaksin always find himself at the center of Thai political drama? It’s like he’s the ultimate magnet for controversy.
He’s been a polarizing figure for ages. Love him or hate him, his influence is undeniable.
Timing of Thaksin completing his sentence and these court verdicts seem too coincidental.
The allegations against Srettha for appointing Pichit are substantial. If he falls, Anutin might as well start measuring the drapes now.
Chaithawat Tulathon’s confidence is refreshing. Even if MFP gets dissolved, their spirit remains unbroken.