The political landscape of Thailand is bracing for a seismic shift next month as the Constitutional Court is set to deliver verdicts on two seminal cases that could significantly influence the country’s future. These rulings will determine the fate of the primary opposition, the Move Forward Party (MFP), and the current Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin.
Jatuporn Prompan, a former red-shirt leader, has expressed skepticism about the MFP’s chances. “I believe the prospects of the MFP surviving the dissolution case are slim,” he noted. The implications for Prime Minister Srettha, if removed from office, could ripple through and impact the ruling Pheu Thai Party as well.
Yet, Pheu Thai isn’t left without a plan. They have two other formidable PM candidates ready: party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra and core member Chaikasem Nitisiri, according to various observers.
Amid the ongoing turbulence, Prime Minister Srettha remains steadfast. “I am focused on my work, and my morale is high,” he mentioned yesterday, clearly confident that the coalition members will stay united. “Differences in opinion are normal. If problems arise, they will be sorted out,” he added in a resolute tone.
Adding fuel to the speculation fire, Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charvirakul downplayed any notions of replacing Srettha. “Every cabinet minister has given moral support to the prime minister. We hope he can get through tough times,” said Anutin, who is not only the leader of the Bhumjaithai Party but was also a PM candidate in the last election.
The origins of the case against Mr. Srettha date back to May when 40 caretaker senators filed a petition to the Constitutional Court. They alleged that he had breached the constitution by appointing Pichit Chuenban, an ex-convict with connections to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as his PM’s Office Minister in a recent cabinet reshuffle. This controversial appointment was claimed to be unsuitable due to Pichit’s prior jail sentence in 2008 for attempting to bribe Supreme Court officials.
In an attempt to avoid a legal storm, Pichit resigned from his post just before the court took up the case. Subsequently, the court decided to hear the case against Mr. Srettha but dismissed the case against Pichit as he had already stepped down. The ruling for Mr. Srettha’s case is anticipated on August 14.
The MFP case, filed by the Election Commission (EC) in March, stems from a January 31 ruling by the Constitutional Court. The Court found the MFP’s efforts to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code indicative of an intention to undermine Thailand’s constitutional monarchy. Subsequently, the EC argued that this violated Section 92 of the organic law on political parties, giving the court the authority to dissolve any party jeopardizing the monarchy.
The EC has asked the court to disband the MFP, ban its executives from standing in future elections, and prohibit them from registering or serving as executives of a new party for a decade. The court’s ruling on the dissolution case is expected on August 7.
MFP leader Chaithawat Tulathon, however, remains hopeful. “The MFP has grown stronger, with its members better equipped and more prepared to work, so the party will emerge victorious at the next general election,” he voiced optimistically, indicating that the party is ready to face the outcome, whether favorable or not.
Adding another dramatic twist, all eyes are now on Thaksin Shinawatra as his one-year jail sentence concludes on August 22. Speculation is rife about whether he will step into a role within Pheu Thai to help revive its waning popularity.
Thaksin, aged 74, returned to Thailand on August 22 last year after 15 years in self-exile. On that same day, the Supreme Court ordered him to serve an eight-year imprisonment stemming from three different cases. However, due to health reasons, he was quickly transferred from Bangkok Remand Prison to the Police General Hospital.
His jail time was subsequently reduced to one year via a royal pardon. After six months of hospital confinement, Thaksin was paroled and discharged in February.
It’s pretty clear that political maneuvering plays a big role in these decisions. I don’t think the MFP will get dissolved because it has too much support from the younger generation.
Support from the younger generation doesn’t matter if the court finds them guilty. Rules are rules.
While rules are important, it’s naive to overlook the fact that politics often overrules the judiciary in many countries. Thailand isn’t an exception.
Exactly, Dr. Brian. We can’t ignore the political influence on judicial decisions. This could go either way based on who’s pulling the strings.
It feels like a witch hunt against Srettha. The charges are just an excuse to put someone else in power.
If he appointed someone with a criminal past, isn’t that a valid concern though?
Sure, it’s a concern, but the timing seems too convenient, don’t you think? Politics is rarely about legality alone.
Thaksin coming back could just destabilize everything. He should stay out and let the new generation take over.
Agree. His time is over. Anyways, he’s too controversial and divisive.
Thaksin has valuable experience that could help. Dismissing him outright is a mistake.
There’s a line between valuable experience and clinging to power. Thaksin is clearly the latter.
I don’t trust the court to be impartial. The whole system seems rigged to protect certain interests.
I feel like Pheu Thai has a backup plan for everything. They’re just waiting to pull the rug from under Srettha.
Wouldn’t be surprised. Politics is a dirty game.
The MFP’s efforts to change Section 112 were brave but foolhardy. They should have known it would bring them trouble.
Sometimes necessary changes require taking risks. They knew the stakes.
But why risk the entire party for it? There are smarter ways to bring about change.
Thailand’s political situation has always been unpredictable, but dissolving the MFP would be a step backward.
Maybe it’s time for a fresh start. Let new leaders come forward instead of the same old faces.
Pichit Chuenban’s resignation was a strategic move. It shows they’re trying to clean up their act before any major decisions.
True, but it feels like a reactive measure. They should have been proactive to avoid this in the first place.
No matter what happens, the Thai people deserve transparency and honesty from their leaders.
Srettha’s calm demeanor is commendable, but will it be enough to sway the court? Highly doubtful.
Anutin’s support for Srettha is interesting. Makes me wonder what his endgame is.
It’s politics. His support might just be for show; everything is calculated.
The legal processes in Thailand feel never-ending. Isn’t there a way to streamline these cases?
Ultimately, the people who will suffer the most are the regular Thai citizens caught in this power struggle.
Exactly. The politicians play their games while we face the consequences.
It’s the same story everywhere. The common people always bear the brunt.
The focus should be on what’s best for Thailand’s future, not individual political careers.