On August 18, the Pheu Thai Party dug in its heels and publicly threw its full weight behind the suspended prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as the countdown to the Constitutional Court’s decision on a leaked audio clip accelerates. With the court’s ruling expected on August 29, party leaders moved quickly to calm nerves, quash rumours and insist they’re not bracing for political collapse — even as Thailand watches closely.
Visuth Chainaroon, Pheu Thai list-MP and the party’s chief government whip, painted a picture of confidence rather than crisis. According to Visuth, MPs remain unworried about the forthcoming judgment and are united in their belief that Paetongtarn’s private conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen was meant to protect national interests and preserve stability amid growing tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border. In short: what some critics call a scandal, Pheu Thai calls context.
Visuth was at pains to stress that party morale is “robust,” arguing there’s no need for emergency contingency plans because Paetongtarn acted in good faith and should expect a fair hearing. He also downplayed legal alarm bells by pointing out that the discussion took place outside formal negotiation channels and that security forces are managing any border flare-ups. That combination, he suggested, keeps the worst-case scenarios at bay.
One recurring question is whether the Bhumjaithai Party might re-enter the ruling coalition if leadership changes occur. Pheu Thai’s message was clear: the likelihood is slim. Even if the court were to remove Paetongtarn from office, Visuth said, Pheu Thai would retain the premiership — and the possible return of Bhumjaithai to government ranks would be “very unlikely.”
Still, the party isn’t leaving everything to chance. Pheu Thai already has a fallback candidate lined up: Chaikasem Nitisiri is prepared for nomination in a House vote should constitutional procedures require a new prime minister to be selected. That readiness is meant to show the party can pivot without handing the reins to coalition partners or rivals.
Meanwhile, Digital Economy and Society Minister Prasert Jantararuangtong — a long-time Pheu Thai figure — publicly dismissed rumours that Paetongtarn might resign before the court hands down its verdict. Whisper campaigns have suggested that a preemptive resignation could stall or derail the court process, potentially sparing the suspended premier from a formal finding of ethical misconduct. Prasert’s rebuttal, however, sought to close that escape hatch and keep the narrative focused on due process.
Paetongtarn herself has mounted a legal defense. She submitted a response to the Constitutional Court arguing that her comments in the leaked recording were intended as negotiation tactics — not as an illicit offer of favours. That framing attempts to recast the conversation as diplomatic maneuvering in a tense regional context rather than an ethical lapse. Media outlets, including the Bangkok Post, have reported allegations that she violated expected standards of conduct by appearing to placate Hun Sen, claims Pheu Thai insists are misreadings of intent.
For neutral observers, the case raises several intriguing questions: How will the court interpret private diplomatic language? Will political dynamics shift if the court removes the prime minister or finds no breach? And how much will coalition arithmetic — particularly the shape of relations with Bhumjaithai — influence the weeks to come?
Here are the most plausible outcomes as the August 29 date approaches:
- Court clears Paetongtarn: If the Constitutional Court accepts the argument that her remarks were tactical and not corruptive, Pheu Thai keeps its leader, the coalition remains intact, and political turbulence cools — at least for now.
- Court removes Paetongtarn but Pheu Thai retains control: Even if the court disqualifies her, Pheu Thai could nominate an internal successor (such as Chaikasem Nitisiri) and maintain its hold on the premiership, minimizing the shock to governance.
- Court removes Paetongtarn and coalition shifts: This is the riskiest outcome for Pheu Thai. A removal could open negotiation windows for other parties, but Visuth and Pheu Thai insist Bhumjaithai is unlikely to jump back in — though politics has surprised before.
Whatever happens, the coming days will be a delicate balance of legal process and political posturing. Pheu Thai’s public strategy is to show unity, present a ready alternative leader, and keep the focus on national security and diplomatic intent rather than personal misconduct. For voters, coalition partners and the regional neighbours watching Thailand’s political theater, August 29 will feel less like the finale of a soap opera and more like the opening act of a new chapter.
Until then, expect more statements, a few more denials, and perhaps another round of leaked tidbits. But for now, Pheu Thai’s message is clear and pointed: they’re standing by Paetongtarn, prepared to move forward, and hopeful that the court will judge the conversation in the context of tense border negotiations — rather than as a political misstep that unravels an entire government.
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