Sanae Takaichi’s Bid for Japan’s Prime Minister: Political Chess Moves of 2025

In the dramatic twist that is Japanese political chess, former LDP policy chief, Sanae Takaichi, continues to wield her queen-like moves on the intricate board. Following her impressive initial win in the first round of last September’s party leadership election, Takaichi ultimately lost to Ishiba in the runoff. However, her ambitions to shatter the glass ceiling remain undeterred as she seeks to write her name in history as Japan’s first female prime minister.

As the dust settled after the LDP’s historic stumble in this month’s House of Councillors election, Takaichi, standing firm in her home turf of Nara Prefecture, declared on July 18 with unwavering determination, “I’ve made up my mind.” This marked a significant moment, echoing through her political landscape as a declaration of intent.

Following the election, Takaichi gathered a council of ten close lawmakers, including Upper House member Hiroshi Yamada, at a House of Representatives residential facility in Tokyo. This was a strategic move, allowing her to rally support and forge future alliances. In a surprising yet calculated maneuver, she also met with former Prime Minister and current LDP supreme adviser Taro Aso, whose faction is the party’s last stronghold.

Yet, in a careful dance of savvy political maneuvering, Takaichi cautiously distances herself from the unrelenting crescendo within the LDP calling for Ishiba’s resignation. By doing so, she strategically places herself to sidestep critique in what could be an imminent leadership election. She assures skeptics that her discussions with Aso were focused on international matters, like the Taiwan situation, while aides insist she was absent during contentious conversations.

In stark contrast, former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi is not one to play it cool. His vision is clear as he sets his sights on Ishiba’s seat. Recently, he rendezvoused with Aso and later broke bread with ambitious, young ex-members of the now-disbanded Motegi faction, plotting to carve out his own formidable faction in the LDP turf.

During their eclectic dinner, Motegi voiced a determined pledge to ascend as a prevailing force within the party. Meanwhile, his loyalists are marshaling efforts to convene an assembly of LDP lawmakers, seeking to confront Ishiba over the election debacle. Emboldened by the supportive tides from his Tochigi Prefecture stronghold urging Ishiba’s exit, Motegi presses forward with an unapologetic momentum, though some party veterans murmur caution, labeling his zeal as excessive.

Then there’s the figure of Shinjiro Koizumi, the contemplative agricultural minister who opts for a more discreet profile amid these power plays, aligning his actions with his affiliation to Ishiba’s cabinet. Yet, behind the scenes, seasoned party confidants are nudging Koizumi to brace himself for significant roles. His cautious response is one of readiness, seeking guidance to brace himself for waves ahead.

Amidst this swirling political storm, another noteworthy figure emerges—Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi. Dipping his toe into the leadership race pool, Hayashi dines with former top dogs from the Kishida faction and pays a call to Kishida himself, signifying potential allegiances and shrewdly positioning himself in this unfolding drama.

As Japan’s political theater unfolds with unprecedented velocity and high-stakes intrigue, the characters embroiled in its narrative continue to strategize their next bold move. With a keen sense of urgency, they know the world demands cunning and adaptable leadership more than ever.