A potential buyer is searching for a favorite government lottery ticket in Phra Nakhon district, Bangkok, back in February. (Photo: Apichart Jinakul)
According to a statistics expert at Thammasat University, one would have to purchase the lottery 100 times in a row – equivalent to roughly four years and two months – just to win the two-digit prize. Assoc Prof Wararit Panichkitkosolkul referred to a recent study conducted by the Faculty of Science and Technology at the university, which demonstrated the probability of winning the government lottery. He suggested that the government should cease promoting the lottery, as it is already well-known and the chances of winning are slim.
The study also revealed that the odds of winning 2,000 baht from the government lottery’s final two-digit prize is a mere 1 in 100. A buyer would need to invest approximately 8,000 baht for one lottery ticket each round, 100 times, to achieve this. Assoc Prof Wararit, who serves as an assistant to the dean as well as a lecturer at the Faculty of Science and Technology, stated that the likelihood of winning the first prize is even more remote – one in a million, according to the study.
“Non-bank debts generally stem from gambling, including participation in government and illegal lotteries,” he remarked. “What is even more concerning is the fact that today’s online technology has facilitated broader access to lotteries, betting games, and other gambling activities, with loans often being promptly granted to gamblers,” he added.
Rather than promoting the government lottery, particularly through announcements about potential winnings for each draw, the government should make an effort to help people understand the limited probability of winning, said Assoc Prof Wararit. In addition, he advised parents to share knowledge of statistical mathematics, which can prove useful in their children’s future careers.
Statistics can assist individuals in obtaining more realistic perspectives on issues that require judicious decision-making, including gambling, where the chances of winning are actually quite slim. Moreover, graduates who have earned a degree in actuarial science are in high demand, he noted.
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