Forecasting this year’s flood situation, Chawalit Chantararat, a renowned water expert and director at Team Consulting Engineering and Management Public Company Limited (Team Group), predicts that the forthcoming floods will not mirror the catastrophic deluge of 2011. His optimistic outlook, recently shared with the Bangkok Post, is grounded in a combination of smaller water masses descending from the North and the country’s heightened preparedness to address potential flood disasters.
Chawalit emphasized that while significant rainfall has been recorded in northern provinces such as Chiang Rai, Phayao, Phrae, Sukhothai, and Phichit, it has not yet reached levels capable of submerging the entire region. This year’s water flow past Muang district of Nakhon Sawan province was measured at 15.6 billion cubic meters, a stark contrast to the 23.4 billion cubic meters recorded on September 25, 2011.
“The massive water volumes witnessed in 2011 were primarily due to the convergence of the Ping, Wang, Yom, and Nan Rivers at Nakhon Sawan—the birthplace of the Chao Phraya River,” explained Chawalit. “This year, only the Yom River has delivered an unusual amount of water from the North. The water flowing through Nakhon Sawan on August 25 was about 40% of what we saw in 2011, which is quite manageable.”
When questioned about the likelihood of Bangkok experiencing a flood akin to the 2011 disaster, Chawalit, also an accomplished water resources engineer, exuded confidence. “Based on the current water volumes, there should be no significant issues because Bangkok serves as the exit point to the sea, and the northern water mass does not span a vast area,” he assured.
He expressed particular confidence in the efficacy of the 10 kaem ling or “monkey cheek” water catchment areas along the Chao Phraya River. Located in provinces north of Bangkok, including Ayutthaya, Lop Buri, and Ang Thong, these reservoirs boast a combined capacity of 1.2 billion cubic meters, effectively preventing northern waters from flooding Bangkok.
“Bangkok often struggles to drain rainwater, especially after heavy downpours in certain areas due to its basin-like terrain,” Chawalit noted. “Some of the more vulnerable spots include Chaeng Watthana Road, Ratchadaphisek Road in front of Bangkok Bank, and Sathu Pradit Road at the Sathu-Chan junction.”
Releasing rainwater into the Chao Phraya River during October can also pose challenges, mainly because sea levels are typically high, causing floods in areas beyond the flood-prevention zones. Communities such as Soi Si Kham in Samsen Soi 19, Devaraj Kunchon, and Rachaphatubtim Ruam Jai in Dusit district, along with Phra Nakhon district’s Tha Wang and Tha Tian areas and Yannawa district’s Rong Si community on Rama III Road, are especially susceptible.
Chawalit also touched upon the broader implications of global warming, attributing it as a key factor in the increasing frequency and severity of floods. “In 2022, Bangkok experienced 800 millimeters of rainfall in just one month, despite an annual average of 2,300 millimeters. Such erratic weather patterns can be attributed to global warming,” he said.
He added, “The Earth’s temperature has risen by 1.2 degrees Celsius, dangerously close to the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold. If temperatures continue to rise, we can expect more calamities, including wildfires, floods, the melting of polar ice, and the encroachment of seawater into our rivers.”
Looking ahead, Chawalit painted a foreboding picture: “In the next 26 years, sea levels in the Gulf of Thailand are projected to rise by 75 centimeters, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. If this prediction holds true, Bangkok could find itself submerged.”
Despite these daunting challenges, Chawalit’s expertise and hopeful outlook suggest that with proper management and infrastructure, Bangkok and its surrounding regions can brace for and withstand potential floods, steering clear of another calamitous event like that of 2011.
I’m skeptical about this prediction. Can we really trust these experts when they’ve been wrong before?
I get the skepticism, but we have to rely on scientific assessments. How else can we prepare?
Science is based on probabilities, not certainties. Remember that!
Yeah, but what about the unpredictability of climate change? It keeps throwing curveballs.
Exactly. The unpredictability makes it even more critical to follow scientific guidelines.
Sure, but they should be more transparent about the margins of error in their predictions.
It’s reassuring to hear but what about the long-term impact of rising sea levels? 75 cm in 26 years is not a joke!
Well, we’ve got time to build better defenses. We’ve done it before, we can do it again.
True, but it requires immense investment and political will. Not easy tasks.
If we reduce carbon emissions now, maybe we wouldn’t have to worry so much about rising sea levels.
I live in one of the flood-prone roads mentioned. This issue is more severe than people realize.
Have you seen any improvements in your area recently? Just curious.
By the way, has anyone ever experienced these mitigation efforts firsthand?
Global warming is blown out of proportion. Floods have been happening for centuries.
Sure, but the data shows that the frequency and severity have increased. That’s hard to ignore.
It’s not just about frequency; it’s also about how unprepared we are for these new patterns.
Chawalit has a point about the kaem ling reservoirs. They are quite efficient.
They are, but they have their limitations. What if they get overwhelmed?
That’s a valid concern. What’s the backup plan if they fail?
I think the government is doing its best given the circumstances.
Doing their best? Really? The 2011 floods damaged so much because of poor planning.
Tony has a point. It’s not just about effort; it’s about effective strategy.
What measures are in place to help vulnerable communities?
Good question. It seems like they are always the last to receive help.
Exactly. We need better outreach programs.
Planning for future floods is crucial, but what can individuals do to minimize the risk?
It’s good to hear some optimistic news for once. Do you think this means property values will stabilize?
Nelly, that’s a good point. Real estate prices fluctuate with perceived risk of natural disasters.