Considered an authority in his field, Dr. Seri Suprathit, the esteemed director of Rangsit University’s Climate Change and Disaster Centre, argues passionately that extensive, profound changes are paramount in the bid to boost agricultural productivity, decrease water use, and put innovative survival solutions into practice.
In a thought-provoking Facebook post, Dr. Seri meticulously breaks down four potential scenarios that could shape the immediate future for Thai farmers.
1. Standard scenario: Even when situations are predictable and the climate is calm, farmers in Thailand put in serious effort yet yield minimal profits. This is primarily attributed to the arrangement of rice prices and poor management, culminating in exceedingly low yields when compared to various other rice-growing nations around the globe. Although Thailand prides itself on being an exceptional rice exporter, it’s an illusive claim. The ‘top exporter’ status is drawn from the fact that a vast amount of land (approximately 27.67 million acres per annum during both the dry and rainy seasons) is dedicated solely to rice cultivation. This industry consumes significant amounts of water (roughly 1,500 cubic meters for 0.93 acres of rice), resulting in an overwhelming total production of approximately 32 million tons of paddy rice per year. However, this does not account for the fact that the average yield per acre is a mere 456 kilograms, substantially lower than that of prominent rice-producers and exporters such as Vietnam, India, China, and Australia.
2. Unstable weather: The La Niña phenomenon brings an overwhelming abundance of water, potentially leading to dramatic flooding like that witnessed in 2011. As a reaction, farmers typically expand their rice cultivation (increasing by over 3.16 million acres per year for both the dry and rainy seasons), causing an overall production rise of 38 million tons of paddy rice per year. Despite this, the most substantial benefits are seen in the rainy-season rice production (643 kilograms per acre), whilst the dry-season rice is prone to considerable flooding damage, only leading to a marginal increase in the yield per acre. This scenario sees farmers grappling with fluctuating periods of hardship and temporary financial windfalls.
3. Inconsistent climate: Alternatively, El Niño triggers a sharp decrease in water availability, which can incite droughts, similar to those experienced in 2015-2016 and 2019-2020. Consequently, the farmers are compelled to reduce their rice cultivation (around 23.72 million acres per year for both the dry and rainy seasons, with a noteworthy drop in dry-season rice from 5.93 million acres to 1.98 million acres). This reduced activity results in an overall decrease in rice production from 32 to 26 million tons of paddy rice per year. Most severely impacted is the yield of dry-season rice, which slumps to 418 kilograms per acre. Unsurprisingly, these weather conditions impose additional hardships on farmers.
4. Climate change: Looking ahead, experts predict escalating temperatures, diminished soil moisture, fewer rainfalls, increased evaporation, climbing sea levels, and the risky potential of experiencing extreme heat, devastating drought, and catastrophic floods concurrently within a single calendar year. Projections for the next century show continued impacts from all three weather scenarios until approximately 2150. Following this, savage El Niño events will likely diminish, but occurrences of flooding and inundation are expected to increase. Predictive assessments indicate rice, sugarcane, and cassava yield damage will fall respectively by 13%, 35%, and 21% each year over the next half-century.
The key to conceiving beneficial strategies for Thai farmers amidst these increasingly fluctuating climatic conditions are broad-ranging reforms, beginning at localized grassroots levels. Dr. Seri emphasizes these changes should encompass enhancing resilience, multiplying agricultural productivity, reducing water consumption, refining soil and fertilizer management techniques, harnessing modern innovative solutions, and introducing robust crop insurance offerings. Moreover, measures need to extend across every stage of the production process, ranging from harvesting, transportation, and storage to milling, packaging, marketing, export procedures, and tax management.
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