Ever wondered about the delicate dance between Mother Nature and mankind in Thailand? Well, Prof Pennung Warnitchai from the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) certainly has, and he took to the stage at the Bangkok Post Knowledge Forum: After the Quake, with quite the seismic story to tell. The forum, which unraveled last Thursday at the prestigious Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, became a stepping stone to understanding Thailand through the mysterious lens of potential earthquakes. (Photo by Pattarapong Chatpattarasill).
Lucky for those residing in Thailand, the chance of an earthquake striking in the near future is relatively low. However, as Prof Pennung wasn’t shy to point out, several areas, including the bustling metropolis of Bangkok, are sitting ducks when it comes to feeling tremors emanating from nearby fault lines. Despite not having its own fault line celebrity, Bangkok could just as easily become the site of a seismic afterparty.
As Prof Pennung passionately explained, Bangkok sits on a wobble-enhancing cushion made entirely of soft soil. This topographical tidbit means that even earthquakes who’ve RSVP’d far away from the city can still send tremors rippling through its skyscrapers. Just this past March 28, the city was given a not-so-friendly nudge by a quake dancing along the Sagaing Fault in Myanmar.
“Bangkok’s basin-like soft soil can amplify seismic waves,” Prof Pennung noted, using the city’s low-ground pancake batter mimicry to paint a picture of potential danger. As vivid as the rice fields are green, it’s easy to imagine how this soil transforms gentle tremors into alarming architectural exercises, especially for those in the upper kisses of high-rise edifices.
With the imagination of a mystery novelist, Prof Pennung laid out three suspenseful earthquake scenarios Bangkok might face:
- a 7.5-magnitude quake sashaying along the Kanchanaburi Fault,
- an 8.0-magnitude tectonic tango courtesy of the Sagaing Fault in Myanmar, akin to March’s memorable moves,
- and the sudden crash of an 8.5 to 9.0 generator quake from the depths of the Andaman Sea fault–though statistically about as likely as a unicorn dancing the cha-cha.
Not one to panic the populace, the good professor was quick to label these scenarios as unlikely dinner guests, with only a 10% chance within our lifetimes of them crashing the party. However, don’t let that fool you; low odds are not synonymous with zero risk.
Since the dawn of 2007, governmental agencies, armed with slide rules and building codes, have orchestrated a clever construction ballet. All new buildings pirouetting onto Bangkok’s stage must meet earthquake-resistant standards, with every single dancer zone carefully scripted to keep the audience safe, come what may.
“Buildings are designed to withstand such challenges,” reassured Prof Pennung, as five guardian monitoring stations keep a watchful eye over the city’s tectonic pulse, marching orders in hand.
Generally, when Bangkok’s structures send out calls of distress, it’s typically just a surface-level sew-up, rather than a structural SOS. But the saga of the State Audit Office (SAO) building in Chatuchak serves as a cautionary tale — its premature collapse whispered dark tales of incompletion and fragile fortitude. As Prof Pennung unearthed, the lack of walls left it swaying dangerously through seismic airs.
“We’re peeling back layer after layer,” Prof Pennung promised, as an investigation unfurls to pin down if mischievous materials, design departure, or other unsavory elements are the culprits of the SAO building’s fall.
And would the story have changed with a completed building? Prof Pennung’s careful words shape a grimmer street – pointing out that the building, even upon completion, had high chances of crumbling under similar tremors.
Earthquakes, it seems, are the surprise guests that Bangkok has prepared for, knuckles firmly in their city soil, unyielding against nature’s whimsical ballroom.
It’s fascinating but also terrifying that Bangkok is basically sitting on a ticking time bomb!
True! It’s like playing Jenga with the city! Buildings may look stable until a quake sends everything tumbling.
Exactly my thought. Sometimes I wonder if other cities face similar unnoticed dangers.
As someone who’s lived through several quakes, trust me. You don’t wanna gamble with Mother Nature.
I understand the fear, Joe, but what about the odds? Isn’t it just instilling unnecessary fear?
Fear is not always bad if it leads to preparedness!
With all these tech advancements, shouldn’t they be able to predict these quakes by now?
Predicting earthquakes is like guessing the next explosion on a slow cooker: scientific yet maddeningly unpredictable!
Why isn’t there more emphasis on awareness and preparation for residents?
You folks act alarmist. Low risk isn’t no risk, but life is full of uncertainties.
Marco, being aware and acting accordingly isn’t alarmism; it’s common sense.
Agreed, Anna. Better to be safe than sorry, right?
But wouldn’t upgrading all buildings to withstand strong quakes be ridiculously costly?
It will be costly, but definitely cheaper than rebuilding after a disaster.
Let’s not forget the loss of human lives, which is priceless.
Does anyone else find it odd they didn’t catch the SAO building problems earlier?
Luck seems to play way too much a role with these fault lines nearby!
The architecture in Bangkok is beautiful, but does beauty hide many flaws?
Sometimes, form trumps function, though ideally, they’d coexist in harmony.
What about old heritage buildings? Are they earthquake-prepared as well?
Sad reality, they’re more prone to damage. Preservation efforts could suffer.
The probability of quakes can’t be overestimated. Keep your family safe; at least have an emergency exit plan.
Scenarios paint a picture, but till then, live life. The risk is low but plan well, stress low.
Living life while prepared is a balance sadly many don’t find, Andy.
Blaming the soil is a bit of an easy out. Human errors are often the real quaking cause.
Thanks, Prof Pennung. Your awareness campaigns could save many lives one day.
Building codes might be strict, but adequate enforcement is what we need.
Bangkok’s bracing for a quake sounds a lot like preparing for a grand feast: a little over the top.
Any excuse to adopt stronger and more innovative engineering solutions is progress!
Until we can control tectonic plates, we need to control our infrastructure.
Prof Pennung is like a modern-day Nostradamus for Bangkok.
Might not be a prophet, but he’s making sure the prophecy is survival.