Prof. Pennung Warnitchai Reveals Bangkok’s Seismic Preparedness in “After the Quake” Insights

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While the sands of time may obscure certain realities, they certainly haven’t buried the potential threat of earthquakes looming over Thailand. Yet fret not, dear reader, for in the labyrinth of such geophysical intrigues, we have the renowned Prof. Pennung Warnitchai from the Asian Institute of Technology to guide us. His insights at the recent Bangkok Post Knowledge Forum turned the spotlight on the seismic conundrum facing Bangkok, despite the city’s geographical allure.

The forum, aptly titled “After the Quake,” conjured imagery of tremors originating from elusive fault lines and casting shadows over the city, reminiscent of a mystery novel. With Bangkok’s unique topography, one might wonder if it moonlights as a dormant shake rattle and roll zone. Prof. Pennung, with a twinkle in his eye, explained how the city isn’t exactly sitting atop a fault line, but rather, figuratively resting on a beanbag of soft soil. Delightfully unconventional, right?

This malted milkshake of soil is as good at amplifying seismic waves as a rock concert on a quiet night—up to four times louder, actually. Imagine feeling tremors that originate from the Sagaing Fault in Myanmar, a fault line that cares not for international borders. The earth shook on March 28 this past year, causing quite a stir in Bangkok, all thanks to the mythic clays beneath the city.

Now, if you’re getting apprehensive that myth has become reality, take solace in Prof. Pennung’s pragmatic perspective. His elucidation covered three cinematic earthquake scenarios that might affect Bangkok: a magnitude 7.5 along the Kanchanaburi Fault, an 8-pointer’s guest appearance from the Sagaing Fault, and an epically rare 8.5–9 magnitude event along the Andaman Sea Fault. Clutch your pearls they may, but these scenarios, he noted with a scholarly shrug, each have only a 10% chance of disturbing the present peace in our lifetime.

While the statistics are comforting, “low probability does not translate into zero risk,” intoned Prof. Pennung, urging a modicum of preparedness. After all, since 2007, new building codes are shaking up how structures are designed, demanding quake-resistant blueprints. This proactive course of action has divided Bangkok into ten thrilling zones, each embedded with bespoke building codes that read like a choose-your-own-adventure in architectural fortification.

The city’s commitment to seismic preparedness doesn’t stop there. Five strategically placed earthquake monitoring stations act like sentinels on watch, collecting data to fortify the city’s defenses against Mother Nature’s whims. Thus far, the majority of damages recorded after quakes have been mere brush strokes on the canvas of the buildings, affecting non-structural elements.

The unfortunate collapse of the State Audit Office (SAO) building in Chatuchak district stands as a somber testament to the perils of incomplete construction. Part of the investigation committee dissecting this occurrence, Prof. Pennung noted that the SAO building, bereft of stability-imparting walls, capitulated to seismic forces. The more enigmatic component of the mystery, he conceded, is still under exploration, with the investigation threading through potential corruption, material subterfuge, or design lapses.

Ever cautious, he opined that even with completion, should the soil and stars align for another quake of similar magnitude, the edifice might still face a grim fate. Yet even with such somber revelations, there’s a certain comfort in the knowledge that the city of Bangkok, backed by seismic savants like Prof. Pennung, continues to spin its narrative of resilience, ready to face whatever tremors tomorrow may bring.